Egypt-Turkiye Détente Tested by Ongoing Libyan Crisis

The detente between Egypt and Turkiye marks a significant development following a decade-long rift, characterized by reciprocal presidential visits. The crisis surrounding Libya’s central bank emerges as a critical test for this newfound cooperation. Both nations have historically supported rival factions in Libya, yet economic interests may compel a collaboration for stabilization. The current upheaval poses threats not only to Libyan stability but also to Egypt’s security, given the proximity and shared economic concerns. As both countries pursue joint rebuilding efforts in Libya, the durability of their diplomatic relations remains under scrutiny.

The recent rapprochement between Egypt and Turkiye has reached a significant milestone this year with pivotal visits exchanged between their respective presidents, Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Abdel Fatteh El-Sisi. This détente had been long-awaited, considering the decade-long rift that previously characterized their bilateral relations. However, the ongoing crisis involving the Central Bank of Libya serves as the initial challenge for this newly established cooperation. Libya, a nation historically subject to external influences, has been embroiled in conflict that sees Egypt and Turkiye supporting opposing factions, further complicating any collaborative efforts for resolutions. The recent removal of Sadiq Al-Kabir, the governor of Libya’s central bank since 2011, catalyzed the current crisis. His ousting, enacted by Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh, has led to significant unrest as Al-Kabir has fled to Turkiye, claiming threats to his life. This political turmoil has garnered responses from the Libyan National Army, led by Khalifa Haftar, as they retaliated against the shutdown of oil supplies, pivotal to Libya’s economy, thus exacerbating international concerns regarding economic stability and energy prices. As the only recognized depository for Libya’s oil revenues, the Central Bank’s dysfunction not only impacts Libya internally but also raises alarms about its international banking relations, particularly following advisories from the US Treasury against engaging with the institution under the current circumstances. With Libya facing dire economic conditions and increasing inflation, the potential for social unrest may pose security dilemmas for neighboring Egypt, given its extensive border with Libya. Both Egypt and Turkiye have vested interests in Libya’s economic recovery, and while historically aligned with opposing sides of the Libyan conflict, there is now a possibility for them to work together toward stabilization. Egypt, aligned with the UAE and Russia, has supported Haftar’s forces, while Turkiye has backed Tripoli’s government, including past military support during conflicts. However, their mutual interests in commercial ventures and reconstruction post-conflict may encourage a fresh approach to cooperation, focusing strategically on the economic benefits of a stable Libya. In essence, the current crisis in Libya presents not just a test of the Egypt-Turkiye détente but also an opportunity for both nations to redefine their traditional alignments in pursuit of shared economic gain. The leadership from both nations indicates a readiness to address the Libyan situation collaboratively, albeit amidst a backdrop of existing geopolitical complexities simmering beneath the surface.

The geopolitical landscape in Libya has a storied history of conflict exacerbated by foreign interventions and varying allegiances. Egypt and Turkiye have historically played opposing roles in this turmoil: Egypt has been allied with factions led by Khalifa Haftar, while Turkiye has extended support to the Tripoli-based government. The recent détente between the two nations represents a pivotal shift, suggesting that shared economic interests may encourage a collaborative exit strategy from their historical opposition in Libya. As they engage in post-conflict rebuilding efforts, their motivations towards establishing stability and economic prosperity become intrinsically tied to the outcomes in Libya, particularly with the central role of oil revenue.

In conclusion, the current Libyan crisis not only tests the fragile détente between Egypt and Turkiye but also presents a unique opportunity for both nations to reconsider their political allegiances within the context of mutual economic benefits. Successful collaboration could serve as a catalyst for broader peace efforts in the Middle East, demonstrating the capacity of both leaders to transcend historical rivalries in favor of stability and prosperity. The international community watches closely as this scenario unfolds, understanding that the outcomes could have significant implications beyond Libya’s borders.

Original Source: www.arabnews.com