Forecast of Above-Normal Rainfall in the Greater Horn of Africa for June to September 2024
The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre predicts above-normal rainfall for the Greater Horn of Africa from June to September 2024, with increased flood risks in South Sudan and Sudan. This rainy season is pivotal for both northern and southern regions where rainfall significantly impacts agriculture and water resources. The forecast mirrors conditions experienced in the years 1998 and 2010. The WMO and ICPAC emphasize the importance of these forecasts in aiding decision-making across various sectors to support disaster risk reduction and climate resiliency efforts.
The Greater Horn of Africa is expected to experience above-normal rainfall from June to September 2024, encompassing areas such as Djibouti, Eritrea, northern and central Ethiopia, western and coastal Kenya, much of Uganda, South Sudan, and Sudan. This forecast has been issued by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), which acts as a regional climate center for the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The period from June to September is crucial for the northern and western regions of the Greater Horn of Africa, as it typically accounts for over 90% of annual rainfall in the northern areas and about 40% in the southern regions. The predicted wetter conditions this year appear to resemble the climatic patterns observed in 1998 and 2010, raising concerns regarding potential flooding, particularly in South Sudan and Sudan, as noted by Dr. Guleid Artan, Director of ICPAC. Countries that have recently endured severe flooding—including Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, the United Republic of Tanzania, alongside portions of Ethiopia, Somalia, and Uganda—are approaching their dry season during the months of June to September. Seasonal climate forecasts are vital for guiding decision-making in sectors such as agriculture, health, and water resources management. They are integral components of the collective efforts by the WMO community under the Early Warnings for All initiative. This forecast was presented during the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum, which convenes climate scientists, governmental and non-governmental organizations focusing on climate-sensitive sectors. For over two decades, the WMO has facilitated regional climate outlook forums to provide actionable forecasts that aim to safeguard human lives and support key sectors like agriculture, food security, water management, health, and disaster risk reduction. In accordance with the WMO’s guidelines, ICPAC employs a standardized method for producing seasonal forecasts for the Greater Horn of Africa, utilizing initialized seasonal forecasts from nine Global Producing Centres (GPCs) and applying three calibration methods to enhance forecast accuracy. An early to normal onset of rains is anticipated in several regions, including central and northern Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan, and South Sudan. Conversely, a delayed onset is expected in Djibouti and certain areas of eastern and western Ethiopia, central and western Sudan, as well as southern South Sudan. Moreover, the temperature outlook suggests a likelihood of warmer-than-normal conditions throughout the region, particularly in northern Sudan, central and western Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania.
The article discusses a significant weather forecast for the Greater Horn of Africa, an area that includes several countries at risk of adverse weather impacts. The prediction of above-normal rainfall during the critical months of June to September can have profound implications for agriculture, health, and water resource management in these regions. Historical peaks in rainfall, coupled with anticipated flooding, necessitate attention from both local and international stakeholders to implement effective water and disaster management solutions. By providing seasonal forecasts, organizations such as ICPAC and WMO aim to mitigate the impacts of climate variability on vulnerable populations.
In summary, the anticipated above-normal rainfall across the Greater Horn of Africa from June to September 2024 highlights the critical nature of climate forecasting in this region. With significant portions of the population vulnerable to the effects of flooding and climate variability, it is essential for stakeholders within agriculture, health, and emergency management sectors to leverage these forecasts for informed decision-making. The collaborative efforts of regional climate forums and adherence to established WMO protocols further enhance the accuracy and applicability of these forecasts, thereby enabling more effective risk reduction strategies.
Original Source: wmo.int
