Analysts Suggest Israel May Act Against Iran Amid U.S. Election Distractions
As U.S. elections approach, analysts predict that Israel may exploit the distraction to launch attacks against Iran following a significant missile strike on Israel. Amid escalating tensions and Iran’s vow for stronger retaliation, experts highlight that political transitions in the U.S. typically favor aggressive actions by state actors seeking to secure their interests.
Analysts believe that Israel is poised to capitalize on the distractions of the upcoming U.S. elections to strike back against Iran following a significant missile attack that left Israel vulnerable. On Tuesday, Iran launched an attack consisting of up to 200 missiles directed at Israel, which Iran claims was a response to the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July, as well as the ongoing military actions supported by the United States in Gaza and Lebanon. Fears of escalating conflict loom as Iran has indicated a willingness to respond with a stronger offensive if Israel retaliates. The situation is further complicated by Israel’s operations against the Iranian-backed group Hezbollah in Lebanon and the impending anniversary of the recent and intense Israel-Hamas conflict that began after Hamas’s attack on October 7. U.S. elections, set for November 5, are seen as a pivotal moment when attention will be diverted from international issues, allowing Israel to engage more aggressively. Beni Sabti, a researcher at The Institute for National Security Studies, posits, “Israel will use this time—while the U.S. is busy with itself and the election—to hit Iran, while the U.S. is not warning or stopping it.” Michael Pregent from the Hudson Institute similarly notes that this cycle creates a favorable opportunity for Israel to pursue its interests unencumbered. He asserts that such behavior is common among nations during periods when it appears the U.S. government is preoccupied, remarking, “Our adversaries normally take advantage of this window – when it comes to Iran, Russia and China—and now we see Israel taking advantage of this window as well.” Feryal Cherif of Loyola Marymount University emphasizes that Israel’s actions are emboldened by the current election atmosphere, which traditionally limits U.S. influence over Israeli policy. She observes that, “During non-election periods, it is more common to see U.S. administrations using carrot-and-stick strategies to try to push Israel in directions that align more with U.S. interests.” Although President Joe Biden has publicly stated that he will not endorse an Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, he maintains strong support for Israel, averring, “Make no mistake, the United States is fully, fully supportive of Israel.”
The context of this situation stems from heightened hostility between Israel and Iran, particularly regarding Iran’s support for militant groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah. The backdrop of military actions includes Israel’s targeted responses to perceived threats, highlighted by its operation against Hezbollah and the assassination of Hamas leaders, which Iran views as provocations. The timing of these escalations coincides with the U.S. election cycle, during which analysts suggest that international powers, including Israel, seek to act unimpeded by American diplomatic strategies traditionally enforced during non-election periods. Additionally, the shifting political landscape within the U.S. adds an extra dimension to the potential for military action, as Israel may feel compelled to secure its interests before any changes in American leadership could alter U.S. foreign policy.
The analysts’ insights reflect a consensus that Israel is likely to escalate military actions against Iran while the United States is preoccupied with its electoral process. This presents a window of opportunity for Israel to operate without significant U.S. intervention, as both regional dynamics and the ongoing conflict between these nations continue to intensify. The implications of these actions could further destabilize the region, especially if Iran follows through on its threat to retaliate against any Israeli strikes.
Original Source: www.newsweek.com
