An Update on the Prolonged Civil War in Sudan
The ongoing civil war in Sudan has intensified, resulting in over 20,000 deaths and 10.8 million internally displaced persons. Initiated from a power struggle between the SAF and RSF, the conflict has worsened humanitarian conditions, particularly in Darfur, amid failed ceasefire negotiations. The war persists due to competing political aims, external support, and ethnic strife, leaving the prospect of peace bleak as the country faces possible disintegration similar to Libya.
The civil war in Sudan, now at its 18-month mark, has escalated following a significant offensive by the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in late September 2024. This renewed violence led to over 20,000 casualties according to the United Nations, while the International Organization for Migration reports more than 10.8 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) as of October 1, 2024. The attempts for ceasefire and peace talks have repeatedly failed, marking a grim scenario ahead of U.S.-led negotiations coinciding with the UN General Assembly. The conflict originated from a power struggle between the military leaders, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan of the SAF and Hamdan Dagalo of the RSF. While the RSF maintains territorial advantages in various regions, the SAF has recently intensified airstrikes and reclaimed certain areas around Khartoum. The humanitarian crisis has intensified, particularly in the Darfur states, severely limiting access to aid and healthcare, resulting in widespread famine and cholera outbreaks that have claimed over 200 lives. The war continues primarily due to the determination of both military factions to consolidate their power. The SAF asserts its legitimacy as the governing body, yet its rule has been marred by an international arms embargo and its controversial rise to power via a 2021 coup. Conversely, the RSF contests this narrative and seeks broader recognition and alliances. Additionally, the availability of weapons, despite the embargo, has been sustained through external support and procurement from various nations. The conflict is further complicated by ethnic divisions and the involvement of regional militias that have polarized the fighting along ethnic lines. External influences, notably accusations against the United Arab Emirates and Russia, have also fueled the conflict. Diplomacy efforts to establish peace have seen multiple rounds of negotiations fail, predominantly due to distrust among rival factions. With significant refugee influx into neighboring countries and rising tensions along borders, the situation appears precarious. The international community continues to call for peace, yet the potential for negotiations seems bleak given the complexities of the situation. The lack of media attention also hampers effective understanding and intervention in the conflict. Thus, the prospects for resolution remain uncertain as military actions persist, and the fear of a disintegration of Sudan akin to Libya looms large. The continuation of this civil war raises alarms over regional instability, humanitarian crises, and recurring cycles of violence that appear to be an unwanted yet accepted reality for the Sudanese populace.
The civil war in Sudan has roots in a power struggle between two military factions: the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). This conflict not only carries historical baggage from previous military coups and governmental upheaval but is also reflective of Sudan’s sociopolitical complexities woven into ethnic lines and regional rivalries. As Sudan grapples with its internal divisions, international scrutiny and intervention efforts have been minimal, reducing the chances for a peaceful resolution and exacerbating the humanitarian catastrophes arising from the ongoing violence.
In conclusion, the civil war in Sudan represents a multifaceted crisis fueled by power dynamics between military factions, ethnic tensions, and external influences. With repeated failures in ceasefire negotiations and increasing humanitarian needs, the conflict is likely to persist without significant international intervention or a willingness among combatants to compromise. The specter of a divided Sudan raises concerns not only for the nation but also for regional stability, as the international community watches and waits for potential breakthroughs in a protracted conflict.
Original Source: www.thehindu.com
