Saudi-Israeli Normalization Prospects Dim Amid Iranian Diplomacy

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The prospect of a normalization deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel is fading as Iran’s Foreign Minister visits the Kingdom amid rising tensions over Israeli actions in Gaza and Lebanon. Saudi Arabia is reassessing its diplomatic stance, emphasizing the need for a call for Palestinian statehood before any agreements can proceed. The complex interplay of U.S. interests, Iranian threats, and regional stability is pivotal in the current situation, impacting both military and diplomatic strategies among Gulf states, Israel, and Iran.

Recent developments indicate that the anticipated normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel is diminishing. Notably, with Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi visiting Riyadh to address ongoing hostilities in Gaza and Lebanon, this shift in diplomatic focus signals a potential realignment of regional partnerships. Foreign Minister Araghchi asserted, “Our dialogue continues regarding the developments in the region to prevent the shameless crimes of the Zionist regime in Lebanon, in continuation of the crimes in Gaza.” He elaborated on his commitment to catalyze regional cooperation aimed at mitigating violence, stating, “Starting today, I’ll begin a trip to the region, to Riyadh and other capitals, and we will strive for a collective movement from the countries of the region… to stop the brutal attacks in Lebanon.” While Saudi Arabia has historically maintained a strategic alliance with the United States—being its largest arms purchaser—it is evidential that the Kingdom is pursuing a political rapprochement with Iran, especially in light of the ongoing conflict with Israel. Recently, Gulf states recommitted to neutrality amidst rising tensions between Israel and Iran. Iran has cautioned that support for Israel could provoke retaliatory actions targeting the interests of its backers in the region. Ali Shihabi, a Saudi commentator, noted, “The Gulf states think it’s unlikely that Iran will strike their oil facilities, but the Iranians are dropping hints they might from unofficial sources. It’s a tool the Iranians have against the U.S. and the global economy.” This situation has been exacerbated by previous incursions, such as the 2019 drone attack on Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq refinery initiated by Iran which disrupted approximately 5% of the global oil supply. Furthermore, the administration of President Biden aimed to advance a normalization deal, reminiscent of the Abraham Accords, before the recent Hamas attacks on October 7. This prospective agreement was expected to include security assurances and civil nuclear collaboration. However, bipartisan skepticism regarding Saudi Arabia’s human rights record and fears surrounding nuclear proliferation complicated its progress. Robert Greenway, a former senior director at the National Security Council, reflected, “I don’t think we were ever really that close,” highlighting the tenuous nature of the negotiations. The changed dynamic following Hamas’s actions has led Saudi Arabia to call for a clearer strategy concerning Palestinian statehood before any agreement can be entertained. Former deputy national security adviser Victoria Coates expressed a cautious optimism towards future negotiations, emphasizing the need for alignment in Congress to facilitate any potential civil nuclear agreement, stating, “From what I’m hearing from both sides, it’s when, not if.”

The relationship dynamics in the Middle East have historically been complex, marked by strategic alliances and rivalries. The normalization talks between Saudi Arabia and Israel had generated significant interest, paralleling the Abraham Accords that saw other Arab nations establish ties with Israel. However, recent regional conflicts, particularly Israel’s actions in Gaza and Lebanon, have disrupted these diplomatic efforts. Iran, a key player opposing U.S. influence in the region, has been vocal about supporting groups resisting Israeli incursions, further complicating relations between Saudi Arabia, its Gulf neighbors, and Israel. The stakes include humanitarian concerns, geopolitical power plays, and the balance of military capabilities within the region.

In summary, the prospects for a Saudi-Israeli normalization deal appear diminished following the Iranian Foreign Minister’s recent visit and escalating regional tensions. While Saudi Arabia may still seek a partnership with Israel, the demands for Palestinian statehood and changing political frameworks will significantly influence future negotiations. The international community remains vigilant as these dynamics continue to evolve, shaping not only regional stability but broader geopolitical relationships.

Original Source: www.foxnews.com

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