ASEAN Leaders Convene to Address Myanmar Crisis and South China Sea Tensions in Laos

Southeast Asian leaders gathered in Vientiane, Laos, on October 9, 2024, for the ASEAN summit, focusing on the Myanmar civil conflict and South China Sea disputes. The forum also involves discussions with global powers such as China and the U.S. New leadership changes in Southeast Asia highlight changes in dynamics, while increased tensions in the South China Sea and the ongoing crisis in Myanmar challenge ASEAN’s credibility. Future discussions may include informal consultations on the Myanmar issue, revealing the complexities of regional cooperation amidst diverging national interests.

On October 9, 2024, Southeast Asian leaders convened in Vientiane, Laos, for the annual ASEAN summit. The primary focus of this meeting was to address two pressing issues: the ongoing civil conflict in Myanmar and escalating tensions in the South China Sea, both of which pose significant challenges to the credibility of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). During the summit, dialogues are also scheduled with major global powers such as China, the United States, and Russia, which are vying for influence in the region. Although the discussions will primarily concentrate on regional matters, there may be references to the rising violence in the Middle East, which has had indirect repercussions in Southeast Asia. The ten member nations of ASEAN—namely Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Myanmar, Cambodia, Brunei, and Laos—are expected to deliberate with partners from Japan, South Korea, India, and Australia on various topics, including economic initiatives, climate change, and energy issues. In his opening remarks, Lao Prime Minister Sonexay Siphandone extended a cordial welcome to the newly elected leaders from Thailand and Singapore, expressing Laos’ commitment to fostering collaboration among member states amidst geopolitical and economic challenges. He emphasized, “We help one another, and work together the ASEAN way,” highlighting the importance of unity and cooperation within ASEAN. Notably, the forum sees several new leadership faces, including Thailand’s youngest Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, who took office in August, and Singapore’s Prime Minister Lawrence Wong, who assumed leadership in May. Indonesia’s President Joko Widodo is absent as he prepares for a transition in leadership, with Vice President Ma’ruf Amin representing the nation. Furthermore, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is attending in place of President Joe Biden, while China is represented by Premier Li Qiang. A crucial topic for Blinken will be the tense U.S.-China relations, particularly concerning China’s assertiveness in the South China Sea. This oceanic region has witnessed numerous disputes, with overlapping territorial claims from Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan. Despite ongoing negotiations to establish a code of conduct for the area, progress has been slow, and conflicts have intensified, including recent clashes between Chinese and Philippine vessels. Meanwhile, Vietnam has reported assaults by Chinese forces on its fishermen in contested areas. Muhammad Faizal Abdul Rahman of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies remarked on the complexities of ASEAN’s role, stating that countries not directly in conflict with China would generally prioritize maintaining good relations with the nation over regional collaboration. He noted, “It is the preference for conflict avoidance while getting geostrategic benefits where possible,” indicating that national interests often supersede regional priorities. The crisis in Myanmar continues to pose a significant credibility challenge for ASEAN, following the military’s ousting of Aung San Suu Kyi’s elected government in February 2021, resulting in nearly 6,000 deaths and over 3 million displaced individuals. The junta has shown little commitment to an ASEAN peace plan that advocates for ceasefire and mediation. A noteworthy development is Myanmar’s participation in the summit, represented by Foreign Ministry permanent secretary Aung Kyaw Moe, marking the country’s first high-level engagement in the forum since being barred from political representation in late 2021. Thailand is anticipated to facilitate an informal consultation on the Myanmar crisis in December, although attendance from Myanmar remains uncertain. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Nikorndej Balangura emphasized Thailand’s readiness to coordinate collective efforts towards establishing peace in Myanmar. Analysts suggest that ASEAN’s invitation to a senior diplomat from Myanmar might indicate a compromise, revealing the organization’s weariness in addressing the prolonged crisis. Lina Alexandra of Indonesia’s Centre for Strategic and International Studies expressed skepticism about achieving a significant breakthrough, signifying the ongoing challenges before ASEAN as member states grapple with their individual national interests in light of regional dynamics.

The ASEAN summit serves as a critical platform for leaders in Southeast Asia to engage in dialogue about pressing regional issues like civil conflicts and territorial disputes. Myanmar’s ongoing civil war has escalated since the military coup in February 2021, leading to widespread violence and displacement, while the South China Sea remains a contentious area fraught with competing territorial claims, mainly between China and several ASEAN nations. The summit and subsequent dialogues with significant world powers provide a venue for discussing these critical matters, along with broader topics like economic strategies and climate change.

The ASEAN summit in Laos is pivotal in addressing the critical issues facing Southeast Asia, including the unresolved situation in Myanmar and the rising tensions in the South China Sea. As global powers participate in discussions alongside ASEAN nations, the leadership dynamics, particularly with new leaders emerging, will influence the effectiveness of collaboration and conflict resolution in the region. The summit reflects ASEAN’s attempts to navigate complex geopolitical challenges while maintaining unity among its member states, despite increasing skepticism regarding its efficacy in addressing the Myanmar crisis and managing relations with China in the South China Sea.

Original Source: www.thehindu.com