Scientists Warn of Irreversible Climate Damages from 1.5°C Overshoot
A new study published in *Nature* reveals the risks associated with temporarily overshooting the 1.5°C cap set by the Paris Agreement. It highlights that certain damages, such as sea level rise, may be irreversible, even if temperatures decline afterward. Experts stress the importance of immediate and significant emissions reductions combined with carbon dioxide removal strategies to minimize long-term climate impacts.
Recent research published in Nature sheds light on the implications of overshooting the Paris Agreement’s temperature target of 1.5°C. The study, supported by the European innovation fund HORIZON2020, concludes that while it may be feasible to reverse the rise in global temperatures after momentarily exceeding this threshold, certain climate impacts caused during peak warming, such as sea level rise, will inevitably be irreversible. Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, the lead author and Integrated Climate Impacts Research Group Leader at the IIASA Energy, Climate, and Environment Program, stated, “This paper does away with any notion that overshoot would deliver a similar climate outcome to a future in which we had done more, earlier, to ensure to limit peak warming to 1.5°C.” He further emphasized that substantial action in the current decade is crucial to minimize emissions and peak temperatures to effectively reduce climate damages. The research highlights the significance of how high and for how long temperatures rise. The potential benefits of reversing temperature increases through net negative emissions globally could notably mitigate sea level rise by about 40 cm by the year 2300 compared to scenarios where temperature rises were merely halted. Joeri Rogelj, one of the co-authors and a climate science professor at Imperial College London, advised, “The earlier we can get to net zero, the lower peak warming will be, and the smaller the risks of irreversible impacts.” He stressed the necessity for countries to submit ambitious emissions reduction commitments ahead of the next climate summit in Brazil. The study calls for comprehensive measures to mitigate the risks associated with exceeding the 1.5°C threshold. It suggests the integration of ambitious emissions reductions with the advancement of sustainable carbon dioxide removal technologies to prepare for potentially higher warming scenarios. Gaurav Ganti, another co-author at IIASA, commented, “There’s no way to rule out the need for large amounts of net negative emissions capabilities, so we really need to minimize our residual emissions.” Schleussner encapsulated the urgency of immediate action by stating, “The race to net zero needs to be seen for what it is – a sprint.”
The ongoing climate crisis has culminated in increased global temperatures, prompting international agreements such as the Paris Agreement. This framework aims to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The concept of ‘overshoot’ refers to scenarios where temperatures exceed this threshold temporarily before subsequent reduction through carbon dioxide removal measures. As climate impacts become more evident, the implications of such overshoots and necessary mitigation strategies are critical for sustaining the planet’s health.
The research underscores the critical need for immediate action to minimize greenhouse gas emissions and limit temperature rise. While the potential to reverse warming exists, the study highlights that irreversible damage will occur without proactive measures. The emphasis on ambitious emissions targets and sustainable carbon capture technologies serves as a roadmap for navigating future climate risks.
Original Source: www.eurasiareview.com
