Flood and Drought Displacement Risk in the Horn of Africa: An Innovative Model for Future Planning
This report addresses the dramatic effects of floods leading to over 185 million internal displacements globally since 2008, with Africa experiencing 29 million of those. Spotlighting Sudan, Ethiopia, and Somalia, it introduces a new flood displacement risk model intended to provide accurate forecasts and guide effective policy-making. Key findings indicate a potential two to four times increase in average annual displacement (AAD) under future climate scenarios, with Sudan facing up to a ninefold increase. The report emphasizes the necessity of informed decision-making to reduce disaster risks and protect at-risk populations.
This report elucidates the significant impact of floods on internal displacement, reporting that since 2008, an astounding 185 million individuals have been displaced internally due to such disasters globally. Within Africa, over 29 million flood-induced displacements were recorded between 2008 and 2022, positioning the continent as the second most affected region worldwide. This study specifically concentrates on the Horn of Africa, examining Sudan, Ethiopia, and Somalia, and introduces an innovative flood displacement risk model developed as part of Work Package 3 of the HABITABLE project. The primary objective of this model is to provide accurate projections of future displacement movements, which serve to inform policy formulation effectively. A distinctive vulnerability assessment approach is employed, taking into account often overlooked factors in conventional risk models, including the direct impacts on housing and livelihoods, as well as the indirect consequences on essential services and facilities. Adopting a probabilistic methodology, the model integrates climatic, hydrological, and hydraulic modeling to estimate the influence of various factors that prompt displacement. The findings express displacement risk through metrics such as average annual displacement (AAD) and probable maximum displacement (PMD). Evaluations under current and projected climate scenarios, both optimistic and pessimistic, reveal a potential rise in AAD by two to four times compared to existing conditions. In more severe scenarios, such as pessimistic forecasts for Sudan, the increase in risk could be as drastic as ninefold. The insights derived from this model can guide national and subnational disaster risk reduction strategies, enabling stakeholders to pinpoint regions vulnerable to extensive displacements. Decision-makers are urged to harness this data for implementing risk-informed measures to avert and mitigate displacement consequences. The report concludes with strategic recommendations aimed at formulating comprehensive policies to address the challenges of flood-induced displacement and protect affected communities.
The global phenomenon of internal displacement, particularly due to natural disasters such as floods, has emerged as a critical issue in contemporary discussions around climate change and humanitarian crises. The data highlighted in this report underscore the scale of the challenge, with millions being forced from their homes due to environmental factors. The Horn of Africa is particularly vulnerable to such events, necessitating innovative approaches for assessment and response. Recognizing the gaps in traditional models that often fail to account for multifaceted impacts on communities, this report introduces a new methodology aimed at accurately predicting displacement risks in the context of climate variability. By focusing on Ethiopia, Somalia, and Sudan, this study aims to enhance readiness and response mechanisms in regions predisposed to such disasters.
In conclusion, the report highlights the urgent need for effective strategies to address flood-induced displacement in the Horn of Africa. The innovative flood displacement risk model presented provides a robust tool for estimating future movements caused by floods. By leveraging unique vulnerability assessments and inclusive methodologies, decision-makers can better navigate the complexities of displacement in the face of climate change. Ultimately, concerted policy efforts that integrate these insights are required to protect vulnerable populations and mitigate the impacts of future displacement crises.
Original Source: reliefweb.int
