Eritrea Consolidates Regional Alliances Amid Rising Tensions with Ethiopia
On October 10, 2023, Eritrea’s Isaias Afwerki, Somalia’s Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, and Egypt’s Abdel Fattah el-Sisi held a trilateral summit in Asmara focusing on countering Ethiopian influence and enhancing cooperation against terrorism. With growing tensions stemming from Ethiopia’s relationship with Somaliland, Egypt seeks to support Somalia militarily, while Eritrea expresses concerns over Ethiopia’s aspirations regarding its ports. Despite the alarming rhetoric, experts suggest that an immediate military confrontation is unlikely.
On October 10, 2023, Eritrea’s long-standing leader, Isaias Afwerki, convened a significant trilateral summit in Asmara with President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud of Somalia and President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi of Egypt. The discussions focused on strategies to address what the leaders termed as “interference in the internal affairs of the countries of the region under any pretext or justification,” as stated in the joint communiqué following the meeting. They collectively recognized the necessity to strengthen coordination and collaboration to bolster the Somali state institutions’ ability to combat terrorism, safeguard territorial integrity, and protect both land and maritime borders. This summit emerges against the backdrop of heightened tensions involving Ethiopia, particularly since the establishment of a memorandum of understanding (MoU) between Ethiopia and the self-declared republic of Somaliland in January. Ethiopia’s purported willingness to acknowledge Somaliland’s independence in exchange for access to coastal areas for naval establishment has provoked Somalia, which considers Somaliland an integral part of its national territory. Egypt has taken advantage of this discord to amplify its efforts to apply pressure on Ethiopia, primarily due to the ongoing disagreements over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which Cairo perceives as a threat to its vital water resources. Following the signing of a military cooperation agreement with Somalia in August of this year, Egypt provided Somalia with military aid and proposed potential troop deployments in place of the Ethiopian forces currently engaged in operations against the militant group Al-Shabaab. Somalia has expressed intentions to expel all Ethiopian military presence by year-end if the MoU remains in effect. Meanwhile, Eritrea, once a military ally of Ethiopia during the Tigray conflict, has expressed irritation over Ethiopia’s continuing aspirations regarding Eritrea’s ports, from which it has been cut off since Eritrea gained independence in 1993. Experts propose that Afwerki’s efforts to solidify alliances with Ethiopia’s adversaries stem from his concern for Eritrea’s security in light of Ethiopia’s aggressive posturing. However, despite the belligerent undertones of the alliance, many analysts contend that the likelihood of direct military conflict remains low, given the existing domestic challenges faced by Somalia and Egypt, and the ongoing recovery of Eritrea from the Tigrayan conflict. “What everyone is trying to do is really to posture,” remarked Omar Mahmood, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group. The situation highlights a diplomatic standoff rather than an imminent military clash.
The complexities of the political landscape in the Horn of Africa have heightened with the recent trilateral meeting between Eritrea, Somalia, and Egypt. With Ethiopia’s growing dominance and strained relations with its neighbors, particularly Somalia, this summit surfaces critical geopolitical interests. Ethiopia’s relationship with Somalia has soured due to territorial disputes surrounding Somaliland, leading to Egypt seeking to align with the regional players against Ethiopia amid concerns over water rights and military presence. This context is essential to grasp the ongoing tensions and emerging alliances.
In summary, the trilateral meeting held on October 10, 2023, reflects ongoing regional tensions in the Horn of Africa, particularly involving Eritrea, Somalia, and Ethiopia. The leaders’ collective agreement to strengthen regional stability and security against perceived Ethiopian aggression signals a potential shift in alliances. However, despite escalated rhetoric, the current limitations faced by Somalia and Egypt suggest that overt military confrontation remains unlikely in the near term. Continued diplomatic negotiations will be critical as these nations navigate their interests and the intricacies of regional power dynamics.
Original Source: www.theafricareport.com
