Forecasters Monitor Tropical Disturbance That May Affect Caribbean
Forecasters anticipate a rising probability of a tropical disturbance in the Atlantic evolving into a storm that could impact the Caribbean by week’s end. Currently assessed at a 60% chance of development over the next week, the system could affect Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. A second, less likely disturbance is under observation off Central America which may bring heavy rainfall later this week.
Forecasters from the National Hurricane Center are monitoring a tropical disturbance in the Atlantic that may evolve into a new storm impacting the Caribbean by the end of this week. As of Tuesday morning, the disturbance has been assessed to have a 60% probability of developing into a tropical depression within the next seven days, which has increased from previous evaluations. There is, however, only a 30% chance of this development occurring in the immediate two-day period. Currently, this system is characterized as an unorganized mass of thunderstorms with a defined center, but it needs to consolidate further with additional rainfall to qualify as a tropical depression, which is challenging given its present location amidst drier air conditions. The forecast indicates that the disturbance is anticipated to progress westward, potentially encountering moister air that would facilitate further intensification. Specifically, it could affect the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by Thursday or Friday, but long-range predictions are uncertain, with global weather models presenting divergent scenarios. These models may either direct the system west through Cuba or curve it more towards the northeast, targeting Florida or the Bahamas. Experts caution that predictions at this stage have limited reliability. Jim Cantore from the Weather Channel noted, “Many questions remain on both intensity and track.” In addition to this disturbance, the hurricane center is also tracking another system off the Central American coast. The likelihood of it developing into a tropical depression is considerably lower, sitting at approximately 30% across the next week, with no projected formation in the short term. Current modeling suggests that if this system remains over water, it could strengthen; however, many forecasts indicate that it will return towards the Central American landmass. Regardless of its development, heavy rainfall is anticipated in parts of Central America later this week as the disturbance progresses.
The article focuses on the increasing likelihood of tropical storm formation in the Caribbean, primarily due to a disturbance currently present in the Atlantic Ocean. The National Hurricane Center provides updated probabilities and insights regarding the potential trajectory and intensity of this weather system. Understanding the dynamics of tropical disturbances and their progression is crucial for preparedness in affected regions, particularly the Caribbean islands and Central America, which are frequently at risk during the hurricane season.
In conclusion, the National Hurricane Center is observing a significant tropical disturbance in the Atlantic that shows potential for development into a storm impacting the Caribbean by week’s end. While forecasts show an increased chance for the system to strengthen, uncertainties surrounding its path and intensity remain. Additionally, a second disturbance off the Central American coast is being monitored, albeit with lower probabilities for development. Vigilance in tracking these disturbances will be essential, as they may bring considerable rainfall and weather hazards to the region.
Original Source: www.miamiherald.com
