Emergence of a Coalition Against Ethiopia: Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia
A new coalition comprising Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia has formed to collectively oppose Ethiopia, which is perceived as a regional threat under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, along with leaders from Eritrea and Somalia, convened to establish a security partnership aimed at addressing mutual challenges, particularly regarding terrorism and stability in the Horn of Africa. This coalition signifies a shift in regional dynamics, complicating the already fragile political landscape and raising alarms about the potential for renewed conflicts.
In recent developments, a coalition aimed at confronting Ethiopia has been formed among Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia. This so-called “axis of resistance” signifies Egypt’s intent to establish a strategic base within the Horn of Africa, as highlighted by a recent meeting in Asmara, Eritrea, where Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, and Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud agreed to cooperate on security matters. A joint statement issued after the meeting emphasized a commitment to bolster Somali state institutions against internal and external threats, particularly terrorism. This alliance is viewed as part of Egypt’s broader strategy to counter perceived threats from Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s regional maneuvers. Particularly troubling is Ethiopia’s recent leasing of a stretch of coastline from Somaliland, a region unrecognized by Somalia, in a move aimed at restoring Ethiopian access to the Red Sea. Concurrently, Egypt has engaged with the African Union to replace Ethiopian peacekeepers in Somalia with its own troops, a call that has arisen following Egypt’s earlier military support to Somalia in combating the militant group al-Shabab. Ethiopia’s history with Eritrea has been tumultuous, characterized by conflict until recently when both nations united against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front. However, Eritrea remains resolute in its hostility towards the TPLF, further complicating relations within the region. Critics assert that Somalia’s current administration risks inviting a proxy conflict, exacerbating existing clan tensions within its fragile federal structure, especially given Somalia’s ongoing struggles against al-Shabab’s influence. As these dynamics unfold, the potential for escalating violence remains high, with the risks underscored by experts noting the paradoxical leadership qualities of both Abiy Ahmed and Afwerki, which could lead to a catastrophic confrontation. The alliance between Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia may also inadvertently strengthen al-Shabab, presenting additional challenges for the region’s fragile security landscape. Furthermore, Egypt’s ambitions seem to be intertwined with broader regional conflicts, including its involvement in the ongoing civil war in Sudan, where it aligns with other Gulf nations. As geopolitical interests in the Horn of Africa sharpen, analysts remain vigilant about the risky implications of these developments. The week ahead holds significant discussions in the region, including Kenya’s Senate deliberations on the impeachment of Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and various other political and judicial events that could influence the political landscape across Africa.
The article discusses the geopolitical dynamics in the Horn of Africa, where Egypt is collaborating with Eritrea and Somalia to oppose Ethiopia under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. This coalition, characterized as an alliance against Ethiopia, emerges amidst long-standing regional tensions exacerbated by conflicts in Sudan and historic disputes over the Nile waters between Egypt and Ethiopia. Ethiopia’s recent actions, including leasing coastal territory from Somaliland, highlight its aspirations for greater access to maritime routes, which Egypt perceives as a direct threat to its interests. Moreover, the ongoing instability in Somalia, coupled with Egypt’s military engagement in the region, raises concerns about a potential resurgence of conflict, particularly as these nations navigate complex alliances and rivalries in Africa.
In summary, the alliance forming between Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia against Ethiopia is indicative of deeper regional rivalries and the complexities of geopolitical maneuvering in the Horn of Africa. As this partnership develops, it risks rekindling tensions and possibly exacerbating conflicts, particularly in light of the ongoing challenges facing Somalia and the historical enmity between Eritrea and Ethiopia. The implications of these alliances warrant close attention as they could significantly alter the security and political landscape in the region.
Original Source: foreignpolicy.com
