Emerging Anti-Ethiopia Alliance: A Strategic Shift in the Horn of Africa
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, and Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud have formed a new alliance aimed at countering Ethiopia’s regional influence. This partnership underscores a shared concern over Ethiopia’s actions, particularly regarding its Nile dam project, and seeks to enhance security cooperation against terrorism. The implications of this alliance could reignite historical hostilities and destabilize the region further, especially given the current challenges faced by Somalia.
In recent developments, Egypt has initiated a strategic partnership with Eritrea and Somalia, aiming to form an alliance against Ethiopia. This collaboration was solidified during a meeting held in Asmara, where Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, and Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud convened to establish a security pact. The leaders expressed their commitment to strengthening Somali state institutions to tackle internal and external challenges and enhance the capabilities of the Somali National Federal Army in combating terrorism in all its forms. This marks a significant geopolitical shift, with Egypt, having recently supplied arms to Somalia, seeking to expand its influence in the Horn of Africa amidst rising tensions with Ethiopia over the recently constructed Nile mega-dam and other regional issues. The alliance between these three nations is also positioned within the broader context of the civil strife in Sudan, where Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia align with external actors like Saudi Arabia and Turkey against Ethiopia, which maintains a partnership with the UAE. Such movements could potentially escalate conflicts in a region already fraught with instability, especially considering Egypt’s ongoing disputes with Ethiopia over the Nile and Eritrea’s historical antagonism towards Ethiopia.
The geopolitical dynamics in the Horn of Africa are complex, fueled by a history of conflict and strategic interests among neighboring countries. Following a civil conflict in Ethiopia, Eritrea and Ethiopia have transitioned from adversaries to temporary partners against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). However, Ethiopia’s recent actions, including leasing coastal territory from Somaliland, which Somalia claims as its own, along with its controversial dam construction on the Nile, have heightened tensions in the region. Egypt’s increasing involvement through military and strategic support for Somalia may reshape alliances and provoke further instability, especially with Somalia’s fragmented political landscape and ongoing combat against extremist groups like al-Shabab.
The alliance between Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia could significantly alter the security dynamics in the Horn of Africa. As these nations position themselves against Ethiopia, the potential for renewed conflict seems imminent given the region’s history of strife and the ongoing power struggles. The gathering of these nations under the guise of national security and internal stability may inadvertently empower extremist factions, complicating the already volatile political environment. Managing these complex relations will require sensitive diplomatic maneuvers to avoid exacerbating existing tensions and conflicts.
Original Source: foreignpolicy.com
