Formation of an Anti-Ethiopia Alliance in the Horn of Africa
Egypt has established an alliance with Eritrea and Somalia aimed at countering Ethiopia’s regional influence under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. This coalition may destabilize the area further, particularly given Egypt’s involvement in arming Somalia and replacing Ethiopian peacekeeping forces amid ongoing tensions stemming from longstanding disputes over the Nile and territorial claims in the region.
In a strategic maneuver, Egypt has formed an alliance with Eritrea and Somalia, aiming to counter perceived threats from Ethiopia under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s leadership. This coalition was formalized during a recent summit in Asmara, where leaders of the three nations agreed to bolster Somali state institutions to tackle both internal and external challenges, particularly terrorism. The context of this alliance is complex, stemming from territorial disputes and historical grievances. Ethiopia has been actively seeking access to the Red Sea, at times leasing coastlines from Somaliland—regions recognized by many as still part of Somalia. Concurrently, Egypt is embroiled in a long-standing conflict with Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which Egypt perceives as a direct threat to its water security. As tensions rise, the leaders have made efforts to strengthen military and security partnerships. Following its provision of arms to Somalia, Egypt seeks to replace Ethiopian peacekeeping troops with its own forces, which may escalate regional militarization. Additionally, the alliance has ramifications beyond Somalia, as it includes involvement in Sudan’s civil war, aligning with foreign powers against Ethiopian interests. Returning to military engagements, Egypt’s assistance might inadvertently bolster extremist groups like al-Shabab, whose recruitment efforts could be fueled by perceived external threats, complicating the already fragile political landscape in Somalia. Previous cooperation between Ethiopian and Eritrean forces against a common adversary—the Tigray People’s Liberation Front—adds another layer of complexity, as Eritrea’s intentions to undermine Ethiopia remain steadfast. Despite this, direct military conflict between Ethiopia and Somalia is not anticipated, given Somalia’s struggles against al-Shabab. However, this burgeoning alliance raises the specter of escalating violence in an already volatile Horn of Africa. International analysts have emphasized that the distinct leadership styles of Abiy and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki create a precarious potential for renewed hostilities in the region.
The geopolitical landscape of the Horn of Africa has been a cauldron of conflicts and alliances influenced by historical disputes, ethnic conflicts, and international interests. Ethiopia, landlocked and seeking access to maritime routes, has historically engaged in territorial negotiations with neighboring regions, often straining relationships with countries like Somalia, which it has previously intervened in militarily. Egypt, reliant on the Nile and apprehensive about Ethiopia’s dam projects, has been drawn into a complex web of alliances to secure its interests. The formation of an anti-Ethiopia coalition including Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia highlights the intricate interplay of security concerns, national aspirations, and regional dynamics, which will significantly shape future interactions in a region marked by fragile state institutions and competing insurgent groups.
The nascent alliance among Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia signifies a significant shift in the geopolitical dynamics of the Horn of Africa. By integrating their military and security capabilities, these nations are poised to confront Ethiopia in a complex landscape riddled with internal and external challenges. While the immediate future may not suggest open conflict between Somalia and Ethiopia, the potential for escalated violence remains alarming. The ramifications of this alliance could extend beyond mere territorial disputes, impacting regional stability and the balance of power in Eastern Africa.
Original Source: foreignpolicy.com
