Why India Must Focus on the Geopolitical Churn at Pakistan’s Border with Afghanistan
C Raja Mohan argues that India must pay closer attention to the evolving situation along Pakistan’s border with Afghanistan, particularly in light of the recent Pashtun Qaumi Jirga. He highlights the stagnation of India-Pakistan relations despite some diplomatic efforts, pointing to the historical influence of past geopolitical events and the current rise of nationalism within both Pashtun and Baloch communities. This turbulence is poised to affect regional stability, complicating India’s relations with Pakistan.
C Raja Mohan underscores the significance of observing the evolving dynamics along the Durand Line, which separates Pakistan and Afghanistan, rather than solely fixating on India’s bilateral relations with Pakistan. The recent Pashtun Qaumi Jirga, held in the Khyber district of Pakistan, potentially provides more insight into the future direction of the region than the ongoing diplomatic conversations between Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar and Pakistan. Mohan highlights the paradox in India-Pakistan relations, where diplomatic exchanges generate considerable public interest despite yielding minimal substantive results. Jaishankar’s visit to Islamabad, the first by an Indian foreign minister in a decade, carries great anticipation despite the absence of formal bilateral talks. This ongoing anticipation belies the stagnant nature of India-Pakistan ties, which remain largely unchanged despite decades of intermittent engagement. The entrenched historical grievances between India and Pakistan cast a long shadow over their interactions, often drawing international concern primarily during military crises instigated by terrorism. Looking beyond these bilateral dynamics, Mohan reminds readers of the geopolitical undercurrents stemming from the events of 1979: the Iranian Revolution and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Both occurrences have profoundly shaped regional and global geopolitics, as evidenced by the normalization of Islamic militancy which emerged as a consequence of the Afghan jihad supported by Pakistan. The return of the Taliban to power in Afghanistan has exacerbated internal tensions within Pakistan, particularly within the Pashtun regions along the Durand Line. As the Taliban asserts its autonomy, it complicates Islamabad’s aims of establishing control over Afghanistan while simultaneously fuelling calls for autonomy from Pashtun groups. The Pashtun Tahafuz Movement’s recent demands emphasize local grievances against the Pakistani state and the necessity for addressing and respecting Pashtun identity. Mohan notes that the rise of nationalism among both the Pashtuns and Baloch, along with increasing discontent in these regions, signals a potentially unstable future for Pakistan’s western frontiers—trends that are likely to have regional repercussions, especially affecting India’s stability. Overall, Mohan concludes that the broader geopolitical shifts and rising nationalism along Pakistan’s borders could inform India’s strategic approach in dealing with its own challenges with Pakistan.
The article discusses the ongoing tension and conditions along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, particularly focusing on the developments affecting the Pashtun population amid the Taliban’s resurgence. It highlights how the internal dynamics in Pakistan, shaped by historical and contemporary events, are crucial for understanding the regional geopolitics that also influence India-Pakistan relations. The author elaborates on the historical events of 1979, the Iranian Revolution, and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan as foundational occurrences that altered the trajectory of Islamic militancy and regional stability. The Pashtun Tahafuz Movement’s emergence reflects ongoing struggles for identity and autonomy in the context of Pakistani governance, with implications for broader national stability.
In summation, C Raja Mohan emphasizes that understanding the current dynamics along the Durand Line is imperative for India to navigate its complex relationship with Pakistan. The rise of nationalism among the Pashtuns and Baloch, coupled with their demands for autonomy and the historical context of Islamic militancy, point towards a tumultuous future for Pakistan, which will inevitably have ripple effects on India’s strategic considerations. The continued instability in Pakistan’s western frontiers necessitates a reassessment of India’s approach in addressing its bilateral challenges, aligning with regional realities rather than solely historical grievances.
Original Source: indianexpress.com
