Forecasts Show Decreasing Storm Potential in Caribbean, Increasing Chances Near Central America
Forecasters indicate that the potential for a new storm forming in the Caribbean is decreasing, with a 20% chance for the week ahead. A second disturbance near Central America is showing increased chances for development, estimated at 40%, with the potential for heavy rainfall regardless of its status as a tropical depression.
Forecasters have reported a continuing decline in the likelihood of a new storm developing in the Caribbean over the coming week. As of Thursday night, the National Hurricane Center has downgraded the chance of a disturbance forming in the mid-Atlantic to merely 20% for the next week and 10% for the next two days. Even if this system were to survive adversities such as dry air and shear from an approaching cold front, computer model predictions predominantly indicate that it would traverse westward across the Caribbean as a weak storm, potentially producing some rainfall. Weather Channel meteorologist Jim Cantore noted, “It’s either going to get absorbed by the front or die moving west. With the deep fall trough and front pushing through Florida, this creates a safe haven for the USA.” Conversely, another disturbance off the coast of Central America appears to have an increasing chance for development, currently estimated at 40% to evolve into a tropical depression within the next two to seven days. Forecasters emphasize that this system may only strengthen over open water; however, many models indicate it could loop back toward land, potentially leading to considerable rainfall. The hurricane center has further advised that, regardless of the system’s development, significant localized rainfall is anticipated across parts of Central America and southern Mexico over the weekend. Devoun Cetoute, a reporter from the Miami Herald, contributed to this report.
The article discusses the current weather predictions concerning potential storm formation in the Caribbean. The National Hurricane Center frequently updates their forecasts regarding tropical disturbances based on prevailing atmospheric conditions, such as dry air and wind shear that can inhibit storm development. Understanding the dynamics of these weather systems is crucial as they can influence flooding, rainfall patterns, and regional preparedness for storm impacts.
In conclusion, the potential for a new storm forming near the Caribbean is diminishing, with current forecasts indicating a minimal likelihood of development for disturbances in the mid-Atlantic. In contrast, a disturbance near Central America holds a moderate probability of strengthening but is expected to affect land areas with significant rainfall regardless of its development into a tropical storm. Therefore, residents and authorities in Central America and southern Mexico should remain vigilant for the forecasted heavy rains in the coming days.
Original Source: www.miamiherald.com
