Attribution Study Reveals Climate Change’s Impact on Global Burnt Areas
A new study reveals that climate change has likely increased the global burnt area from wildfires by over 15% between 2003 and 2019, with an annual rise of 0.22%. Regions like central Australia have shown the most significant increases. While human activities have reduced global burnt area by 19%, the influence of climate change is expected to intensify in the coming decades, necessitating urgent climate action and adaptation measures.
A recent study published in Nature Climate Change indicates that climate change has contributed to a greater than 15% increase in the global burnt area resulting from wildfires between the years 2003 and 2019. The research highlights that climate change has been responsible for approximately 0.22% of the increase in burnt area per year globally, with central Australia experiencing the most significant rise. Chantelle Burton, a researcher at the Met Office Hadley Centre and one of the lead authors, emphasized that the impact of climate change on fire occurrences is becoming more pronounced due to increasingly drier and warmer weather conditions. This study addresses a gap in knowledge by attempting to quantify the specific extent to which climate change influences wildfire dynamics, a challenge acknowledged by Seppe Lampe, a PhD researcher at Vrije Universiteit Brussel, who stated, “We wanted to quantify the amount of burnt area we could attribute to climate change. It is no secret that climate change is affecting wildfires. However, how much climate change is affecting it, we don’t know. This is what we wanted to answer.” According to findings from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR6), human-induced climate change “likely increased fire weather in some regions of all inhabited continents.” Despite some studies suggesting a decrease in total global burnt area due to agricultural land-use changes, the current study demonstrates a clear rise in burnt area influenced by climate change. For instance, between 2003 and 2019, burnt areas increased by 22% in northern Australia, 30% in southeastern South America, 18% in western Siberia, and 15% in western North America. Lampe explained that these regions are often sparsely populated and poorly suited to adapt to fire outbreaks, posing a risk of larger fires during prolonged periods of warm and dry weather. In contrast, densely populated areas tend to have more firefighting resources to mitigate fire size. Overall, the research indicated that climate change has led to an increase in burnt area across 35 of the 43 IPCC regions, with numerous regions experiencing an annual increase of over 0.5% from 1980 to 2019. Meanwhile, human activities have decreased the global burnt area by 19%, resulting in a slight overall reduction of 5%. Lampe noted, “For now, human activity has a bigger effect on reducing burnt area than climate change is increasing it. We do find that the effect of climate change is increasing (0.2% per year), which implies that in the coming decades, this balance will reverse.” The authors caution that while the net global impact of climate change and human activities on burnt area may be minimal, significant alterations are observed at the regional level, with climate change effects surpassing those of human activity in regions such as central Australia, southern South America, and western Siberia. They advocate for urgent measures to mitigate climate change impacts and adapt to evolving fire dynamics.
Climate change and its impact on wildfire dynamics have become increasingly relevant topics due to rising global temperatures and changing precipitation patterns. Understanding the extent of climate change’s influence on burnt areas globally is crucial for fire management strategies and ecological sustainability. The research provides insights into how human activities and climate variables interact to influence fire behaviour, especially in vulnerable regions prone to wildfires. Utilizing advanced models, the study provides an updated perspective on the complex relationship between climate change and wildfire occurrences, which has implications for environmental policy and land management.
In conclusion, the findings from this study underscore the notable impact of climate change on increasing burnt areas globally, particularly between 2003 and 2019. While human activities have historically reduced burnt areas, the influence of climate change is expected to escalate, prompting a need for strategic fire management and climate mitigation efforts. The evidence indicates a concerning trend of increasing wildfire severity and frequency, particularly in regions that are ill-equipped to handle such changes. This research calls for immediate action in climate adaptation and policy-making to address the evolving challenges posed by wildfires.
Original Source: www.downtoearth.org.in
