Monitoring Tropical Disturbances: What Florida Should Know About…

The National Hurricane Center is tracking three potential tropical disturbances, including Subtropical Storm Patty, which is situated west of the Azores. An 80% chance exists for a tropical depression to form in the southwestern Caribbean next week. While Florida is currently unaffected, potential shifts in storm paths could pose future risks as November progresses, the month known for rare hurricane landfalls in the state.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is currently monitoring three tropical disturbances, including the formation of Subtropical Storm Patty, which is located west of the Azores. Forecasters have indicated an 80% likelihood that a tropical depression will develop over the southwestern Caribbean in the coming week. This system, characterized by disorganized showers and thunderstorms, is projected to move northward over the central Caribbean. Moreover, a secondary system located near Puerto Rico is anticipated to result in thunderstorms across the Greater Antilles before merging with the broader disturbance. As for Florida, the immediate outlook appears clear, with no major threats predicted for the weekend. However, changes in atmospheric conditions could potentially steer a developing storm towards the Gulf of Mexico as it interacts with high-pressure systems. Ryan Truchalat, head of Weathertiger, underscored that while there are possibilities for a storm to evolve near Yucatan or Cuba, its trajectory remains uncertain. Furthermore, tropical development typically accelerates as November progresses, drawing systems closer to the U.S. mainland. Notably, historical data reveals that only three hurricanes have made landfall in Florida during this month since 1851. In summary, while the weekend is expected to be calm for the southeastern U.S., continual monitoring of the evolving scenarios in the tropics is imperative. Individuals are encouraged to stay apprised of updates from local and national meteorological services.

During the latter part of the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30, climatic conditions often allow for tropical systems to develop closer to the United States. In November, the region becomes more conducive for such developments, particularly in the Caribbean Sea and along the southeastern U.S. coast. This period historically shows an uptick in the likelihood of hurricanes affecting U.S. territories, even though the frequency of strikes during this month is relatively low compared to earlier months in the hurricane season.

In conclusion, while there are currently no imminent threats to Florida from tropical disturbances, the formation of Subtropical Storm Patty and potential developments in the Caribbean warrant vigilant monitoring. The possibility for future tropical systems impacting the U.S. increases as we move deeper into November, necessitating ongoing attention to forecast updates.

Original Source: www.tallahassee.com