Xi’s Gamble: The Risks of a Fateful Alliance with North Korea
The assembly of North Korean troops in Russia to aid in the Ukraine conflict symbolizes a precarious alliance among authoritarian states that challenges Western interests. China, while maintaining relations with these allies, faces the complexity of balancing its desire for increased global influence against its economic dependence on the existing international order. This situation poses risks not only to regional stability but also to China’s long-term strategies and economic health.
The recent report of North Korean troops assembling in Russia, allegedly to support President Vladimir Putin in his military actions in Ukraine, raises significant concerns in the West regarding an emerging coalition of autocracies aimed at challenging democratic interests. This perceived authoritarian alliance, comprising Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea, reflects a shared discontent with the United States and its global influence. However, the cooperation among these countries is precarious and hinges on China’s ability to navigate the chaos produced by its partners. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has served as a platform for this cooperation, with Russia sourcing military equipment from Iran and Chinese companies allegedly helping Russian firms manufacture drones. As North Korean troops prepare to reinforce Russian forces, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has warned that their participation in the conflict could have dire repercussions across both Europe and Asia. Despite this show of solidarity, underlying tensions among these autocracies complicate the picture. Russia’s aggression is directly linked to its expansionist ambitions, while both North Korea and Iran have little to lose by supporting Moscow, as they are in dire economic isolation. In contrast, China’s position is more nuanced; its ambitions of reshaping the global order are often checked by its economic dependence on the existing system dominated by the West. Therefore, Xi Jinping has adopted a cautiously strategic approach, seeking to maintain global stability to safeguard China’s economic interests while cautiously expanding its influence. Moreover, Washington’s calls for Beijing to temper North Korea’s actions have largely gone unheeded. In a concerning development, Xi met with Putin shortly before the news about North Korea surfaced, raising questions about the continued collaboration between these nations. China has inadvertently become a key financial supporter and enabler of the other autocracies, with significant increases in trade, particularly with Russia and North Korea. The implications of such alliances carry substantial risks for China. While these partnerships might seem advantageous in undermining the West, they could destabilize the region and lead to adverse economic consequences for China, especially in the event of broader conflicts. The risk of a wider war, for instance, threatens energy markets critical to China’s economy. Furthermore, increased support for Russia could provoke a united response from U.S. and European allies, potentially resulting in escalated sanctions against China. The foreign policy challenge for China is dual-faceted: it seeks to dismantle the existing international order while simultaneously working within it. Currently, Xi appears willing to tolerate global unrest with the expectation that China will manage to evade negative repercussions. However, should this strategy fail, the consequences may prove detrimental for Xi and his administration, revealing the vulnerabilities of relying on such unstable alliances.
The geopolitical landscape is evolving with the convergence of several autocratic states, primarily Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea, against Western influence following significant events such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. These nations experience mutual grievances that drive their collaboration, despite differing approaches and motives. China, under Xi Jinping’s leadership, is trying to balance its global ambitions with the need to maintain economic stability domestically, creating a complex web of diplomatic relations.
In conclusion, Xi Jinping’s strategy of aligning China more closely with autocratic nations poses significant risks to Chinese interests amid ongoing international tensions. While seeking to disrupt the existing global order, he must also guard against the adverse repercussions that could stem from intensified conflicts involving Russia, North Korea, and Iran. The outcomes of this delicate gamble remain uncertain, with the potential for backfiring consequences that could undermine China’s geopolitical goals.
Original Source: www.theatlantic.com
