Analyst Critiques Unlikely Ceasefire Between Israel and Lebanon
Bechara Khairallah, in an interview with Al-Hadath, labeled the optimism around a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon as artificial, citing Hezbollah’s military power and Iran’s influence as key obstacles. He asserted that no settlement would occur before President Trump’s inauguration, emphasizing the complicated dynamics at play which undermine the prospect of a diplomatic breakthrough.
In a recent interview with Saudi news channel Al-Hadath, political analyst Bechara Khairallah expressed skepticism regarding the feasibility of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon. He characterized the prevailing optimism surrounding a potential agreement as artificial, suggesting that it serves more to foster a sense of false hope in the lead-up to the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump. Khairallah asserted that meaningful negotiations could not take place before Trump takes office on January 20, insisting that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would not afford President Joe Biden any diplomatic success prior to the end of his term.
Khairallah outlined the role of Hezbollah as a significant hurdle to any potential agreement, emphasizing that the group’s autonomy in military and political affairs complicates the prospect of a stable solution in Lebanon. He stated, “In Lebanon, any stable solution requires the disarmament of Hezbollah—something Iran will never agree to.” This assertion underlines Khairallah’s view that no settlement is possible as long as Hezbollah remains armed. He expressed doubts about the viability of the proposals on the table, mentioning that, “None of the proposed settlements, particularly the one suggested by Israel, are implementable.”
Additionally, the analyst highlighted concerns from Iran regarding a possible ceasefire, noting that it might enable Israel to launch attacks on Iranian facilities soon thereafter. Khairallah noted, “The Iranians don’t want to see a ceasefire that ends the war because they know it will pave the way for Israeli progress toward those strategic objectives. I am certain that the Iranians are fearful of a ceasefire in Lebanon today.” In conclusion, Khairallah posited that even if discussions toward a settlement were to occur, substantial progress is unlikely in the near future, indicating that the prospective agreement is still considerably distant.
The dynamics between Israel and Lebanon have long been fraught with tension, particularly due to the role of Hezbollah, which is active within Lebanon’s political and military spheres. Recent ceasefire initiatives have been driven by shifting geopolitical landscapes, particularly with the impending transition of power in the United States. The conflict’s complexity is further exacerbated by Iran’s influence over Hezbollah, leading to concerns regarding any agreement that may emerge from the current negotiations. Analysts remain cautious, noting the intertwined challenges of local political factions and broader regional conflicts.
In summary, Bechara Khairallah’s analysis casts doubt on the potential for a successful ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon, attributing this skepticism to internal political dynamics, the role of Hezbollah, and influences from Iran. The expectation of significant progress appears remote, with Khairallah firmly asserting that optimism surrounding potential settlements is unfounded at this juncture.
Original Source: www.jpost.com
