Iran’s Strategic Setbacks in Syria: Challenges for the Assad Regime and the Axis of Resistance

Iran confronts significant challenges in Syria as its proxies weaken, impacting support for the Assad regime. Recent advances by the opposition group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham threaten key cities, while the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces clash with regime forces. Iranian officials attribute setbacks to American-Israeli strategies, as Tehran seeks aid from allies amid dwindling effectiveness of its own proxy forces.

Iran is currently facing significant challenges in supporting the Syrian regime, as setbacks in the region threaten its network of proxy forces known as the “Axis of Resistance.” This Axis includes groups such as Hezbollah, Hamas, and various Iraqi militias, all of which have recently mobilized to confront Israel following the Hamas attacks on October 7. However, the effectiveness of these proxies has diminished, leading to concerns for the Iranian-backed Assad regime in Syria.

Recent reports indicate that Iranian state media acknowledged the challenges posed by increased terrorist activities in Syria, attributing them to an American-Israeli plot aimed at destabilizing the Assad regime and undermining the Axis of Resistance. Major General Mohammad Bagheri of the Iranian Armed Forces highlighted these setbacks in communications with military leaders from Russia, Iraq, and Syria.

In late November, the opposition group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) gained control over Aleppo and is poised to launch further offensives in Hama, further compromising the Syrian government’s position. Concurrently, clashes between U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Syrian regime forces threaten to weaken Assad’s hold on critical regions such as the Euphrates River valley.

Iran’s attempts to bolster the Syrian regime are hindered by the weakened state of its proxies. Hezbollah, for instance, has been significantly depleted by recent conflicts with Israel, losing over 3,000 fighters, many of whom were instrumental in prior successes against Syrian rebels. Iranian officials are now publicly blaming Israel and the U.S. for the Syrian regime’s difficulties.

While maintaining communication with allied nations to strategize a response to the rising terrorist threat in Syria, Iranian military and diplomatic efforts indicate a state of urgency to support the Assad regime. The recent visit of Javad Ghaffari, an IRGC figure, to Damascus underscores Iran’s desperation, indicating a willingness to deploy additional forces if necessary. However, the operational capacity to reinforce the regime appears limited as Russia and Iran remain reluctant to commit more troops.

Without immediate action, including potential tactical deals with Turkey, Iran risks ceding further territory to HTS and undermining the foundational stability of the Axis of Resistance in the region. The geopolitical landscape is increasingly fraught with complications for Iran as it navigates these challenges, seeking to preserve its influence in Syria while contending with escalating pressures on multiple fronts.

The situation described highlights Iran’s intricate web of alliances in the Middle East, particularly its reliance on proxy groups to extend its influence. Following the resurgence of hostilities against Israel, Iran leveraged its Axis of Resistance to mobilize various groups, which in turn have faced substantial losses and setbacks. This context is crucial to understanding the implications of the Syrian civil war on regional stability and Iranian strategy going forward. The current dynamics reflect the deeper complexities of Middle Eastern politics, where alliances are both a source of power and vulnerability.

In summary, Iran’s support for the Assad regime in Syria is increasingly jeopardized by the weakening of its proxy forces and rising military challenges from opposition groups. The conflict’s shifting dynamics demand a careful recalibration of Iranian strategy, as it grapples with potential loss of influence in the region. The Iranian regime’s focus on international diplomacy and potential military reinforcements underscores the critical juncture at which it currently finds itself. Without effective interventions, Iran risks further territorial losses in Syria, posing significant threats to its Axis of Resistance and ambitions in the broader Middle East.

Original Source: www.jpost.com