Implications of Renewed Syrian Conflict for Israeli Security and Regional Dynamics

Israel grapples with the implications of a renewed Syrian civil war, balancing its interests amid competing influences from Iranian-backed Shia and Turkish-supported Sunni factions. The recent offensive by Sunni jihadists against Aleppo complicates the situation, with Israel aiming to maintain security while minimizing instability. Key actors, including Iran and Russia, face significant challenges, reshaping the broader power dynamics in the region.

The resurgence of the Syrian civil war raises pressing concerns for Israel, with many Israelis questioning the implications of a potential shift in power dynamics. Specifically, Israeli leaders face a dilemma regarding the Eastern border, where Iranian-backed Shia extremists and Turkish-supported Sunni jihadists vie for influence. As the situation evolves, Israel is likely to maintain a watchful stance, avoiding involvement until its security interests are directly threatened, echoing Yitzhak Shamir’s sentiment during the Iran-Iraq conflict: Israel can “wish both sides success” while prioritizing its own strategic goals.

The renewed violence sparked by an alliance of Sunni jihadists, including Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and Turkey’s Syrian National Army, against Aleppo illustrates the tumultuous nature of the conflict, with the rebels seizing control and spreading towards Hama. This development is tied closely to the wider effects of the October 7 attack by Hamas on Israel, which has destabilized the region and drawn Iran into renewed hostilities, further complicating an already intricate landscape.

For Israel, the overarching aim remains to contain Iranian influence while preventing Syria from posing a credible threat to its security. A weakened Assad regime may serve Israeli interests; however, a complete collapse could lead to chaos, introducing unpredictability that Israel generally seeks to avoid. It is crucial for Israel to maintain a degree of stability along its northern border, especially as it monitors any Iranian efforts to rearm Hezbollah under the guise of ongoing conflict.

Turkey’s role in this scenario is pivotal, as President Erdogan provides necessary support to the rebels while simultaneously addressing domestic pressures arising from the Syrian refugee crisis. Ankara’s strategic aim includes leveraging support for the rebels to negotiate a favorable resettlement plan for the refugees and to counter Kurdish influences, thus further entrenching its position in the evolving landscape of northern Syria.

In contrast, Iran faces significant setbacks with the rebels gaining ground, jeopardizing its influence and the strategic corridor that allows for the transfer of arms to Hezbollah. The Iranian regime, having heavily invested in Syria, now finds itself limited in resources to aid Assad, especially in light of Hezbollah’s diminished capability due to Israeli operations.

Russia, having intervened in support of Assad, remains determined to project its power in the region while countering U.S. influence. The loss of ground for Assad is detrimental to Moscow’s geopolitical credibility, compelling Russia to initiate military operations against the rebels to reestablish control and demonstrate its commitment to bolstering its allies in the Middle East.

The Syrian civil war, which began in 2011, has evolved into a multifaceted conflict encompassing numerous factions with conflicting ideologies. The recent escalation on November 27 exemplifies the ongoing struggles among Sunni jihadist forces and their backing, particularly from Turkey. Israel’s posture toward these developments is significant as it navigates the need for security while balancing its strategic interests against potential adversaries. The interwoven actions of local and international players like Iran, Turkey, Russia, and the United States complicate an already volatile scenario, revealing the deeper ramifications of regional power shifts.

The resurgence of conflict in Syria poses a complex challenge for Israel, prompting a calculated response that prioritizes its national security while allowing adversaries to engage in their own battles. The developments underscore the intricate power dynamics involving key players such as Turkey, Iran, and Russia, each pursuing their distinct objectives amid the chaos. Israel’s preference for a weakened Assad—while avoiding instability that could ensue from a power vacuum—highlights the paradox of its strategic interests in a rapidly evolving geopolitical landscape.

Original Source: www.jpost.com