Turkey’s Pivotal Role in Syria Post-Assad
This article discusses Turkey’s increasing dominance in Syria following the rapid collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s government. It highlights Turkey’s military operations, its influence over Syrian factions, the return of refugees, and the necessity of reconstruction. The piece emphasizes Turkey’s strategic objectives in establishing a stable interim government and securing its southern border.
The swift downfall of Bashar al-Assad’s government in Syria caught Ankara somewhat off guard, despite Turkish officials having anticipated Assad’s eventual collapse. Initially, Turkish support focused on limited operations by allied Syrian opposition groups like Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) to alleviate tension in Idlib, particularly against government assaults on civilian areas. However, the unexpected capture of Aleppo reflects Turkey’s evolving role as a dominant player in the region.
The timing of events coincided with Russia’s distraction in Ukraine and the United States’ transitional government, creating a unique opportunity for Turkey. What began as a modest operation to secure the strategically vital Tal Rifaat area quickly escalated into a comprehensive campaign, resulting in the swift takeover of key cities within eleven days.
Post-offensive, Turkey has called for dialogue among Syrian factions, highlighting the importance of maintaining the institutional structure of the state. HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani has committed to preserving administrative frameworks and promoting coexistence among various sects, reflecting a broader strategy aligned with Turkish interests. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed optimism about securing Turkey’s southern borders, showcasing Ankara’s influence over the unfolding developments.
Former National Coalition president Khaled Khoja remarked on Turkey’s significant impact throughout the operation. The Turkish government, particularly through officials like Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, appears to have facilitated collaboration with Russia regarding Syria’s future. This approach indicates a strategic orchestration of events, with HTS taking measures reminiscent of concepts previously discussed in Russian-mediated workshops involving the Syrian opposition.
Turkey has invested heavily in nurturing HTS’s transition from a militant group to a more moderate force, especially following the 2017 Astana Agreement, during which Turkish troops entered Idlib. Regional expert Can Acun emphasizes Turkey’s goal of fostering reconciliation among Syrian opposition factions while establishing an inclusive interim government. He notes that Turkey’s governance model in northern Syria will serve as a guide for post-Assad governance.
The upcoming challenges include addressing resource control, primarily dominated by the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), and facilitating the return of approximately 3 million Syrian refugees currently residing in Turkey. Acun indicates that the refugee return will be gradual, requiring a secure environment and robust reconstruction efforts. Turkey is poised to play a key coordinating role in these initiatives, particularly as logistical avenues linking northern Syria with Turkey open up, potentially encouraging investment to aid in refugee repatriation.
As Syria grapples with extensive reconstruction needs following ongoing conflicts, Khoja highlights the substantial financial investments required to rebuild infrastructure, estimated at around $360 billion. Countries within the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) and Gulf states are anticipated to contribute significantly, with Turkey expected to lead and coordinate these recovery efforts.
The context of the article revolves around Turkey’s strategic maneuvers in the ongoing Syrian civil conflict, particularly following the unexpected downfall of the Assad regime. This shift in power dynamics has opened new avenues for Turkish influence in Syria, especially regarding managing opposition forces and addressing the humanitarian crisis sparked by conflict. With millions of Syrian refugees in Turkey, the implications of Turkey’s policies on regional stability and its relations with various factions in Syria are critical, underscoring Ankara’s pivotal role in shaping the future landscape of the country after Assad’s regime.
In summary, the recent developments in Syria underscore Turkey’s significant role in shaping the post-Assad landscape, characterized by its support for Syrian opposition factions and its strategic operations within the country. The successful military campaign and the gradual return of refugees present both opportunities and challenges for Turkey as it aims to navigate a complex geopolitical environment while fostering national stability. As reconstruction efforts begin, Turkey’s leadership and collaborative interactions with other nations and factions will be crucial in establishing a sustainable governance model.
Original Source: www.middleeasteye.net
