What’s Next for Syria and Its Impact on Regional Geopolitics
The article discusses the potential collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, highlighting the roles of U.S. troops, the ambitions of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham rebel group, and the implications for regional stability. It outlines concerns regarding the influence of Turkey, potential extremist challenges in Jordan, and Israel’s military responses to protect its borders. The broader geopolitical shifts and the lack of a unified power center in Syria raise uncertainties for the future governance of the nation and its neighbors.
Bashar al-Assad’s prolonged hold on power in Syria, exacerbated by the civil war lasting over 13 years, has relied heavily on Russian and Iranian support, particularly from Hezbollah. However, as Russia diverts its focus to the invasion of Ukraine and Hezbollah increases its hostilities toward Israel, a coalition of Syrian rebel forces has recognized a strategic opportunity to challenge Assad’s regime. This potential regime change raises critical questions about the future stability and governance in Syria, particularly concerning the unification of the rebel factions.
Currently, approximately 2,000 U.S. troops remain in Syrian territory as part of the ongoing anti-ISIS operations, primarily positioned in northeastern Syria and near the borders with Iraq and Jordan. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently articulated the expectations of the U.S. and its Arab allies for the new Syrian government, emphasizing that the transition should be initiated and sustained by Syrian stakeholders, and must ensure the rights of all citizens, deliver essential services, and prevent Syria from becoming a haven for terrorist activities.
The Assad regime’s collapse prompts uncertainty regarding the diverse groups within the Syrian opposition, particularly the influence exerted by Ahmed al-Shara, the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Despite efforts to present HTS as a more moderate force than its predecessors such as Al Qaeda and ISIS, concerns linger about al-Shara’s intentions and capacity for genuine governance. HTS seeks to gain international legitimacy, particularly to ease sanctions affecting Syria’s frozen assets abroad.
Turkey’s backing of HTS raises alarms among regional observers, with speculation about whether President Erdoğan will leverage HTS to expand Turkey’s influence within the Middle East. Additionally, the implications for Jordan are significant, as the rise of HTS could embolden extremist factions within Jordan, endangering the monarchy’s stability—itself a key ally for both the U.S. and Israel.
On the Israeli front, the nation continues its military operations, having conducted over 500 airstrikes aimed at neutralizing threats like chemical weapon stockpiles and missile sites in Syria. Israel’s military strategy aims to safeguard its territory against hostile entities that may emerge in the wake of Assad’s potential fall. The historical reminder of the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran serves as a cautionary tale of the potential for jihadist narratives to mislead the international community regarding real intentions and capabilities of Syrian factions.
The ongoing situation in Syria represents a substantial shift in Middle Eastern geopolitics, far surpassing the ramifications seen following Egypt’s political upheaval post-Mubarak in 2011. However, unlike the Egyptian army’s decisive role in stabilizing its national landscape, Syria lacks a cohesive authority or military institution capable of fulfilling such a stabilizing force. The emergence of new factions such as HTS and others complicates the landscape, requiring vigilant observation of their subsequent actions and relations towards Israel and minority groups within Syria.
Moreover, Iran appears to be retracting its influence as perceived allied factions in the region recognize the diminishing utility of remaining engaged in Syria. The post-Assad era portends a rapidly evolving regional order, characterized by increased volatility and shifting alliances. Saudi Arabia, traditionally opposing Islamist movements, faces its challenge in reconciling its interests with the growing reality of HTS in Syria, particularly as it contends with its own Islamist opposing forces at home.
The article examines the shifting dynamics in Syria following the potential collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime amid ongoing support from Russia and Iran. It highlights the strategic interests of the U.S., Israel, and regional partners, focusing on the emergence of rebel groups and their implications for regional stability. The implications of the Assad regime’s potential fall extend beyond Syria, impacting neighboring countries like Jordan and altering the balance of power within the Middle East, particularly in the context of U.S.-Iranian relations and Turkish influence.
In summary, the deliberations surrounding Syria’s future underscore the complex interplay of regional powers and marginalized groups within a country undergoing significant upheaval. The roles played by external powers such as the U.S., Turkey, and Iran will shape not only Syrian governance but also broader Middle Eastern geopolitics for years to come. As various factions vie for power, the stakes remain high for both regional stability and international interests, with significant considerations for Israel and its security concerns.
Original Source: www.ajc.org
