Syria’s Political Transition: Lessons from Regional Histories
Syria’s recent political transition following the collapse of the Baath regime underlines the importance of avoiding past mistakes seen in Afghanistan and Iraq. The new government seeks to unify the opposition and ensure protection for minorities, aspiring to an inclusive, centralized governance model based on equal citizenship rather than ethnic quotas. A successful outcome depends on limited foreign interference, allowing the Syrian people to establish a cohesive and sovereign state.
The recent overthrow of the 61-year-long Baath regime in Syria has heralded a new political process, led by the Syrian opposition group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which took control of the capital, Damascus, on December 8. The new government is engaging in discussions about the nation’s future, with some expressing optimism for a brighter era, while others remain cautious due to potential challenges influenced by historical precedents from Afghanistan, Iraq, and Lebanon.
Regarding the situation in Afghanistan, following the Soviet Union’s withdrawal, various resistance groups engaged in infighting, ultimately leading to the Taliban’s rise in the mid-1990s and their subsequent re-establishment of power in 2021 after U.S. troop withdrawal. However, signals from Syria’s developments indicate an intent to avoid these historical mistakes; the new Syrian administration plans to unify the opposition factions under a single Defense Ministry and reconcile with military defectors from the former regime while ensuring protection for ethnic and religious minorities.
An examination of Iraq post-U.S. invasion similarly reveals potential pitfalls. The new Iraqi state was marred by ethnic divisions, creating a governance structure heavily influenced by American and Iranian powers. This resulted in a fragmentation of authority and sectarian tensions, complicating efforts to achieve national sovereignty. In contrast, Syria’s recent political transition is anchored within a national context shaped by the overthrow of the regime primarily by domestic factions, fundamentally allowing for different outcomes. Additionally, Turkey’s supportive stance emphasizes territorial integrity and an inclusive approach, bolstering prospects for a cohesive governance structure that transcends sectarian divides.
The Lebanese governance system, designed along sectarian lines, has faced significant dysfunction, failing to maintain political stability amidst demographic changes. This model is unlikely to be replicated in Syria, where historical coexistence among diverse groups has prevailed, particularly in cities such as Aleppo, known for their cosmopolitan heritage.
The optimal future scenario for Syria entails establishing a centralized government that eschews quotas based on ethnic or religious identities in favor of an inclusive framework centered on equal citizenship. Such a constitution would rectify historical injustices, notably the denial of citizenship faced by the Kurdish population under the previous regime. If foreign influences remain minimized, there exists an encouraging path for Syrian sovereignty through the establishment of a unified government.
The article discusses the political transition in Syria following the collapse of the Baath regime and the takeover by the Syrian opposition. It draws parallels with historical events in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Lebanon to analyze potential future scenarios for Syria’s governance. The context is shaped by the recent political shift towards an inclusive governance model, efforts to avoid the pitfalls of sectarian conflict, and the implications of both domestic support and external influences on Syria’s future stability and unity.
The future of Syria hinges on the successful establishment of a centralized government that promotes equal citizenship while avoiding the sectarian divisions that have plagued other nations in the region. With a historical precedence of coexistence among diverse groups and the backing of Turkey’s inclusive approach, Syria stands at a pivotal juncture where, free from foreign intervention, it could potentially forge a unified and sovereign state that respects all its citizens.
Original Source: www.dailysabah.com
