Increasing Intensity of Tropical Cyclones Linked to Climate Change
While the number of tropical cyclones has remained stable at 47 per year since 1980, their intensity has markedly increased, with a 5 percent rise in average maximum wind speeds and 40 percent more category five storms. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change underscores the link between climate change and intensified storms, highlighting the vulnerability of affected populations. The year 2024 has seen significant cyclone activity, impacting various regions with fatal consequences.
The frequency of tropical cyclones has remained relatively stable over the previous four decades, averaging 47 occurrences annually, according to data from the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and validated by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). However, recent observations indicate a notable increase in the intensity of these storms, as evidenced by a rise in average maximum wind speeds from 182 kilometers per hour to 192 kilometers per hour. Moreover, there has been a significant increase in the number of cyclones classified as category five, rising from approximately one in ten to 1.4 in ten, reflecting a 40 percent escalation in destructive potential.
This information aligns with findings from the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which cautions that climate change will likely exacerbate the frequency and severity of the most damaging tropical cyclones, particularly categories four and five. Climatologist Robert Vautard noted, “If one can assume climate change is responsible for these trends, make no mistake, the humanitarian catastrophes generated by cyclones are largely due to poverty, vulnerability and a lack of protection for the affected populations.”
The year 2024 has witnessed 42 tropical cyclones by mid-December, including 19 landfall events, with Hurricane Milton emerging as the most powerful storm, achieving wind speeds of 278 kilometers per hour upon striking the US coast. The West Pacific region experienced the brunt of these storms, with 15 typhoons logged, including six in the Philippines. On December 16, Cyclone Chido impacted Mayotte, resulting in a reported death toll of 39 and numerous injuries.
In conclusion, the steady occurrence yet increasing intensity of tropical cyclones underscores the profound impact of climate change on extreme weather patterns. Addressing the humanitarian consequences of such disasters necessitates a multifaceted approach, encompassing both climate resilience and socio-economic support for affected communities.
Tropical cyclones, also referred to as hurricanes or typhoons, are intense circular storms that originate over warm tropical oceans. While the overall frequency of such storms has remained consistent for decades, emerging data indicates a troubling trend: the storms are becoming more powerful. This development has been corroborated by climatological studies and aligns with the broader implications of climate change, which is anticipated to amplify the severity of extreme weather events globally. The increase in storm intensity poses significant risks to human lives, infrastructure, and economic stability, particularly in vulnerable regions.
Overall, while the rate of tropical cyclones has not increased dramatically in recent years, their escalating intensity presents serious challenges for disaster response and humanitarian efforts. It is essential that both national and international frameworks prioritize strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate change and enhance resilience for communities disproportionately affected by these natural disasters.
Original Source: www.rfi.fr
