Understanding the Influence of Climate Change on Extreme Weather Patterns
The onset of 2025 has brought severe weather to Southern California and the Mid-Atlantic, exacerbated by climate change, with 2024 being the hottest year on record. Scientific advancements are now allowing clearer connections between climate change and extreme weather. While not every weather event is attributable to these changes, the overarching influence is noted through rising temperatures and altered weather patterns.
The year 2025 commenced with a series of severe weather events across Southern California, which faced destructive wildfires fueled by winds of 100 miles per hour. Simultaneously, significant winter storms affected the Mid-Atlantic and Southern regions, while scientists have reported that 2024 was marked as the hottest year on record due to human-induced climate change.
Historically, climate scientists have maintained that individual weather events could not be directly linked to climate change. However, advancements in research over the last decade have equipped scientists with the ability to connect climate change to extreme weather occurrences such as heat waves, hurricanes, and wildfires.
Not every weather variation can be attributed to climate change, yet the influence of rising global temperatures is observable in multiple extreme weather scenarios. Justin Mankin, a climate scientist at Dartmouth College, asserts that “the trends in climate are shaping new weather possibilities that were maybe unprecedented.”
Scientists differentiate between climate and weather by stating that “climate is what you plan for and weather is what you get.” Danielle Touma, a climate scientist from the University of Texas, Austin, explains this by comparing climate to the clothing in one’s closet, while daily weather is akin to the specific outfit selected.
Generally, climate is defined as the 30-year average of weather patterns, which means unusual weather can count, though common conditions are more significant in determining climate. Deepti Singh, a climate scientist at Washington State University, indicates that while day-to-day weather variability will continue, climate change influences this variability.
The Earth’s average temperature has risen approximately 1.3 degrees Celsius since the mid-1800s, when the combustion of fossil fuels began. The resultant pollution traps heat within the atmosphere, gradually increasing temperatures in air, oceans, and land. Deepti Singh notes that while these warming trends do not always overtly alter daily weather, their effects are pervasive.
Changes in the climate have resulted in fewer days with freezing temperatures in various U.S. regions, while heat waves have tripled in occurrence since the 1960s. Unpredictable weather patterns are emerging due to climate change, evidenced by the unprecedented 2021 heat wave in the Pacific Northwest, which was exacerbated by new atmospheric conditions.
To ascertain the influence of climate change, scientists utilize techniques known as “detection” and “attribution”. By simulating the planet’s climate without human-induced fossil fuel emissions, they can evaluate how climate change has shaped the likelihood and intensity of extreme weather events, such as Hurricane Helene, which exhibited a 10% increase in rainfall attributable to climate change.
Mankin likens these techniques to clinical trials in medicine, where outcomes of treated populations are compared to control groups. In this case, the “treatment” pertains to fossil fuel usage, demonstrating its role in altering weather patterns.
The article discusses the recent increase in severe weather incidents and their connection to human-induced climate change, highlighting the advancements in scientific understanding that allow for a clearer linkage between climatic variations and specific weather events. It explains the fundamental differences between climate and weather, emphasizing the implications of rising global temperatures on extreme weather patterns and daily variability. Furthermore, the article elaborates on scientific methodologies that assess the impact of climate change on various weather occurrences.
While not all weather fluctuations can be directly linked to climate change, significant evidence indicates that human activities contribute to the increase in extreme weather events. Tools developed by scientists now enable them to assess the extent of climate change’s impact on specific weather conditions, suggesting a troubling trend of escalating climate-induced disasters and necessitating urgent action to address and mitigate these changes.
Original Source: www.kbia.org
