The Hidden Rivalry: Egypt and the UAE’s Struggle for Influence in Sudan

A power struggle between Egypt and the UAE is intensifying amid Sudan’s civil war, with Egypt supporting the SAF and the UAE backing the RSF. The conflict has led to severe humanitarian crises and geopolitical tensions involving Nile water security. Egypt seeks stability and refugee management while the UAE aims for resource access, necessitating effective mediation to prevent further escalation.

In the backdrop of Sudan’s ongoing civil war, a significant rivalry is brewing between Egypt and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Egypt aligns itself with the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), while the UAE supports the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). This power struggle, ignited on April 15, 2023, exacerbates an already dire humanitarian crisis as Sudan teeters on the brink of total collapse.

The Biden administration had imposed sanctions on RSF leader Hemedti and SAF General Al-Burhan due to their roles in obstructing peace and humanitarian efforts, with accusations of genocide also levied against Hemedti. Despite mounting evidence against the UAE’s involvement with the RSF, Abu Dhabi insists on its neutrality. U.S. officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, have publicly denounced UAE’s actions as supportive of genocide.

Egyptian officials, notably Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty, have made explicit statements emphasizing the significance of supporting the Sudanese army and distancing it from other groups. Egypt’s commitment includes strengthening the capabilities of the SAF, especially through partnerships with Eritrea and Somalia. As Egypt and the UAE find themselves on opposing sides of the conflict, their prior collaboration complicates the situation.

Since President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s rise to power in 2013, Egypt has cultivated relations with Gulf states for economic support. The UAE’s substantial $35 billion investment in tourism development showcases this alliance. However, diverging interests in Sudan’s conflict have emerged, with Egypt viewing the SAF as vital for regional stability, especially given the influx of over 1.2 million Sudanese refugees.

Egypt’s concerns extend beyond refugees to water security from the Nile. The instability in Sudan threatens Egypt’s leverage relative to Ethiopia, with Sudan historically serving as a vital ally in managing Nile-related issues. The emergence of the Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA) by upstream countries, including South Sudan, has escalated Egypt’s worries about its long-standing Nile rights.

Shifted into a precarious position, Egypt has started cultivating a regional security framework to address the Ethiopian challenge and support the Sudanese army to tackle terrorism. Simultaneously, the ongoing conflict has dealt a blow to UAE’s ambitions, leading to the cancellation of the Abu Amama port deal as Sudan seeks to disentangle itself from foreign influence.

The contrasting visions for Sudan’s future highlight critical divergences: Egypt envisions a stable SAF-oriented government, while the UAE seeks access to Sudan’s resources through the RSF. The Sudanese government, recognizing its leverage, has suggested talks with the UAE conditional on a cessation of RSF support and reparations.

Navigating these complexities requires rigorous mediation, with Egypt indicating potential initiatives to bridge the divide between Sudan’s expectations and the UAE’s positions. The U.S. can play a pivotal role in facilitating dialogue between Cairo and Abu Dhabi to bring about a ceasefire and long-term stability in Sudan, averting further humanitarian disasters.

Failure to achieve a consensus would prolong the conflict, worsening the humanitarian crisis and further destabilizing the region, necessitating urgent diplomatic intervention to steer the situation away from catastrophe.

The ongoing power struggle between Egypt and the UAE regarding Sudan’s civil conflict brings significant geopolitical implications. Egypt’s historical and security concerns, associated with its border with Sudan and the Nile water security, contrast sharply with the UAE’s extractive interests demonstrated through its support for the RSF. This rivalry is further complicated by both nations’ previous alliances and investment agreements, highlighting the intricate dynamics at play in the Horn of Africa.

In conclusion, the divergent interests of Egypt and the UAE in Sudan’s civil war underscore a complex geopolitical rivalry. Egypt’s prioritization of stability and humanitarian considerations stands in contrast to the UAE’s resource-driven agenda. Ultimately, effective mediation and alignment of interests are crucial to prevent further deterioration of the situation and set the foundation for peace in Sudan. Without collaborative diplomatic efforts, the intractable conflict risks deepening the humanitarian and regional crises.

Original Source: responsiblestatecraft.org