USDA Adjusts Forecasts for South American Corn and Soybean Production

The USDA has adjusted its forecasts for corn and soybean production in Argentina and Brazil, lowering estimates due to adverse weather. Argentina’s corn crop is projected at 50 million tons, while Brazil’s corn crop is at 126 million tons. Despite these changes, U.S. corn and soybean ending stocks remain unchanged, although wheat stocks have been reduced significantly. Additionally, China’s grain import estimates for 2024-25 have also been slashed.

Recent reports indicate that the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has revised its projections for corn and soybean production in Argentina and Brazil due to adverse weather conditions. Argentina’s corn yield is now projected to decline by 1 million metric tons to 50 million tons for 2025, while its soybean crop estimate has dropped to 49 million tons. Likewise, Brazil’s corn forecast has been reduced to 126 million metric tons, although its soybean outlook remains stable at 169 million tons. Excessive rainfall and drought have both severely affected crop health in these regions.

The USDA’s adjustments to South American crop projections have yielded minimal impact on U.S. corn and soybean prices, according to market analysts. Brian Hoops of Midwest Market Solutions stated, “South American production is closely looked at and while Argentine and Brazil production is larger than last year, so far supply is down from last month, so a minor supportive feature.” This suggests market observers are still weighing the continuing competition with U.S. exports.

Additionally, USDA has lowered expectations for the 2024/2025 U.S. wheat ending stocks while maintaining previous estimates for corn and soybeans. Ending stocks for corn remain at 1.54 billion bushels and for soybeans at 380 million bushels. In contrast, wheat ending stocks were adjusted down to 794 million bushels, below the anticipated 801 million bushels. Jeremy McCann from Farmer’s Keeper expressed surprise over these figures concerning corn and soybeans.

In summary, the USDA has revised its forecasts for corn and soybean production in Argentina and Brazil due to various climatic challenges, resulting in decreased crop estimates. While these changes have had a slight effect on U.S. market prices, the domestic grain stocks remain stable for corn and soybeans while wheat stocks have seen a necessary reduction. Furthermore, Chinese import estimates for grain have been significantly cut, illustrating changing dynamics in the global agricultural market.

Original Source: farmpolicynews.illinois.edu