Will Sisi Sacrifice Gaza’s Palestinians for Regional Interests?

Egypt has seen its influence on the Palestinian issue diminish since the 2013 military coup, with Gulf states like Saudi Arabia gaining prominence. President Sisi’s regime prioritizes personal and Gulf interests over national security, aligning with repressive measures against Hamas. The risk of displacing Palestinians from Gaza into Sinai raises serious implications for Egypt’s security and regional standing, making the future of Palestine integral to Egypt’s narrative.

Since the Camp David Accords in 1978, Egypt has been a significant Arab influence on the Palestinian issue, especially after its shift away from direct confrontation with Israel. However, following the 2013 military coup, Egypt’s influence waned while Gulf countries gained prominence through financial assistance to Cairo. This change marked a transition from Egypt being the primary voice for Palestinians to Saudi Arabia taking a central role in regional politics.

The normalization of relations between Israel and various Gulf states prompted them to play key roles in the Palestinian issue, overweighting traditional powers like Egypt and Jordan. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar have assumed substantial influence through funding initiatives in Gaza and mediating discussions between Palestinians and Israel.

Under President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s regime, Egypt’s foreign policy shifted to favor personal interests over national security. The establishment of closer ties with Saudi Arabia, including handing over the strategic Tiran and Sanafir islands for support, demonstrates this shift. Consequently, national security priorities were redefined to benefit Gulf partners rather than Egypt itself.

Egypt’s alignment with Gulf states is evidenced by its united stance against Islamist movements, which are perceived as threats. This has led to the classification of Hamas, despite its distancing from the Muslim Brotherhood, as an adversary. Following the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack in Israel, Egypt and the Gulf states sought to mitigate Hamas’s influence for the sake of regional stability.

Sisi’s government has tightened control over the Rafah border crossing, isolating Gaza further to facilitate Hamas’s disbandment as a necessary objective. A potential mass displacement of Palestinians to Sinai looms, threatening the aspirations for an independent Palestinian state, as it could eliminate the refugee issue altogether.

Historical proposals, such as those from former President Trump regarding Palestinian displacement, have raised security concerns in Egypt. The Egyptian military considers these suggestions a threat to national security and regional demographics, expressing firm opposition to any resettlement plans that could destabilize the Sinai region.

The influx of Palestinian refugees into Sinai could strain infrastructure and foster long-term tensions. This scenario poses a major blow to Egypt’s security and visibility in regional discussions about Palestine. Sisi’s political future beyond 2030 remains uncertain, as any constitutional amendments would likely hinge on the support of influential partners.

Consequently, questions arise on whether Sisi might consent to displace Palestinians to secure his continued governance. The military’s eventual compliance would depend on political directives from leadership amidst ongoing pressures from Gulf states and international allies. Ultimately, Gaza’s complexities implicate Egypt directly in the regional power conversations around its territorial and political integrity.

Cairo must navigate the delicate balance of retaining its influence over Gaza while preventing shifts that may alter the geopolitical landscape to favor other powers. The health of Egypt’s national security, economy, and future demographic balance is tightly intertwined with the ongoing situation in Gaza.

In summary, Egypt’s role in the Palestinian issue has shifted significantly post-2013, as Gulf states have grown increasingly influential. President Sisi’s priorities underscore a departure from traditional national security towards alignment with Gulf interests, particularly regarding Hamas. The potential displacement of Palestinians poses grave risks for Egypt’s stability and regional politics, particularly as Sisi contemplates his future governance. As Egypt grapples with these challenges, the future of Palestine remains a central concern for its national and regional identity.

Original Source: www.middleeasteye.net