China Misses 2024 Climate Targets Amid Rising Emissions
China has missed its 2024 climate target, with a 3.4% decrease in carbon intensity falling short of the 3.9% goal. While emissions have slightly increased, coal remains dominant despite significant renewable energy growth. Experts emphasize that achieving China’s 2030 targets will be increasingly challenging due to ongoing industrial growth and the need for effective energy market reforms.
Beijing’s official data indicates that China missed a significant climate target for 2024, as emissions slightly increased while coal remained the primary energy source. The National Bureau of Statistics reported a 3.4 percent decrease in carbon intensity—measured as emissions per unit of GDP—falling short of the official goal of 3.9 percent and precluding the country’s ambition to achieve an 18 percent reduction by 2025 compared to 2020 levels.
Despite a boost in renewable energy sources, carbon emissions have risen marginally, raising questions regarding whether China has peaked in emissions ahead of its 2030 target. Lauri Myllyvirta, a lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, suggests that it remains exceedingly challenging for China to meet its Paris Agreement commitment of a 65 percent reduction in carbon intensity from 2005 levels by 2030.
“Even with optimistic assumptions for 2025, carbon dioxide intensity must fall by 22 percent in (the period) 2026-2030 to meet China’s key Paris target,” Mr. Myllyvirta remarked, underscoring the critical evaluation of China’s adherence to global climate goals.
China, known as a major emitter of greenhouse gases, is also a significant player in renewable energy advances with aspirations to peak carbon emissions by 2030. However, analysts had previously speculated that sustained industrial growth and rapid renewable installations would prompt a reduction in emissions for 2024, which did not materialize.
Analysts believe that assessing emissions peaks will require extensive longitudinal data. Presently, rapid growth in China’s industrial sector has contributed to an uptick in energy demand, which outstrips the pace of clean energy infrastructure development, highlighting the need for reforms promoting flexibility in energy markets.
Total energy consumption increased by 4.3 percent compared to 2023, with coal accounting for over half of the nation’s energy consumption, notwithstanding substantial growth in renewables. Mr. Muyi Yang, senior energy analyst at Ember, noted that China could soon reach a threshold where all new electricity demand will be fulfilled by renewable sources, which would mark the beginning of coal power’s decline in absolute terms.
Beijing is scheduled to reveal details of its 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) later this year, which will likely encompass updated emissions and energy objectives. Additionally, a submission of the updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement was anticipated in February, reflecting China’s commitment to updating its climate goals through 2035, though the deadline was missed in that instance.
In conclusion, China’s recent climate data reveals missed targets for carbon intensity reduction, with emissions slightly rising and coal remaining dominant in energy consumption. The challenges posed by rapid industrial growth necessitate urgent reforms to advance clean energy infrastructure. China aims to fulfill ambitious climate goals, but achieving these objectives will require significant strides in emissions reductions and efforts to augment renewable energy sources.
Original Source: www.straitstimes.com
