Sudan’s Ongoing Conflict: The Struggle for Power and Legitimacy

The ongoing conflict in Sudan, marked by the Sudanese Armed Forces’ territorial gains and the Rapid Support Forces’ push for a parallel government, has led to a humanitarian crisis with numerous casualties and displacements. Analysts emphasize the complexities of the situation, highlighting regional implications and the uncertain path toward resolution amidst external influences. The legitimacy of the RSF remains a critical issue as the conflict continues to evolve.

The conflict in Sudan persists nearly two years after its onset, with the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) making gains in Khartoum while the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) pursue a parallel government. The ongoing warfare has resulted in thousands of fatalities and displaced over 12 million people, leading to a severe humanitarian crisis and raising concerns regarding the country’s future stability and peace prospects.

Jihad Mashamoun, a Sudanese analyst, highlights that the RSF’s attempts to establish a separate government stem from their diminished credibility and responses to territorial losses and international sanctions. The RSF seeks recognition and legitimacy through this gambit, drawing parallels to the political dynamics observed in Libya under rival commander Khalifa Haftar.

Alan Boswell from the International Crisis Group asserts that the SAF’s capture of important locations, including El-Obeid and ongoing advances in Khartoum, indicate a potential shift in power. If the SAF regains full control of Khartoum, further violence may shift to other regions, specifically Darfur and Kordofan, where the RSF will continue to consolidate its influence.

The potential formation of a parallel government by the RSF raises regional concerns, particularly regarding its impact on Chadian governance and illegal immigration routes to Europe. This development could incite external powers’ involvement, thereby complicating the conflict further. Amid these tensions, efforts to negotiate peace remain challenging, with the ongoing military momentum of the SAF.

Experts remain wary about the likelihood of a quick resolution, as the conflict’s stakes remain high and various external nations may vie for influence over Sudan’s future. The current situation has seen increasing calls for the RSF to be designated a terrorist organization to curb their funding and legitimacy. However, such actions have not been prioritized by international powers, complicating the pathway to peace and stability within Sudan.

In conclusion, the situation in Sudan is precarious as the conflict escalates with significant advancements by the Sudanese Armed Forces against the Rapid Support Forces. The RSF’s attempts at establishing a parallel government reflect their diminishing authority and the quest for legitimacy. With external powers potentially influencing the outcome and challenges in negotiating peace, the future remains uncertain, necessitating a vigilant approach to Sudan’s political landscape.

Original Source: www.aa.com.tr