ECOWAS and the Political Crisis in Guinea-Bissau: A Struggle for Influence
President Umaro Mokhtar Sissoco Embaló dissolved the parliament in December 2023, facing opposition claims that it undermines the constitution. After a failed ECOWAS intervention, he confirmed plans to run for a second term. The situation raises questions about ECOWAS’s effectiveness and the implications for regional stability in West Africa.
In December 2019, President Umaro Mokhtar Sissoco Embaló won the presidential elections, securing a five-year mandate that permitted him to pursue re-election in 2025. However, in December 2023, he controversially dissolved the parliament without announcing a date for new elections, a move that opposition parties claim undermines the constitution and serves to entrench his power. Opposition leaders have responded with threats of mass protests, strikes, and civil disobedience unless an election date is specified.
The matter is further complicated by the dispute over the official end date of Embaló’s term in office; while the opposition insists it ends on February 27, 2025, the Supreme Court has controversially extended it to September 4, 2025. This extension has been vehemently rejected by the opposition, contributing to an increasingly volatile political situation. In September 2024, Embaló declared he would not seek a second term, but he soon wavered in this decision, hinting that he may reconsider.
On March 3, 2025, a diplomatic mission from ECOWAS was sent to Guinea-Bissau to help resolve the political deadlock. Unfortunately, this mission was abruptly cut short when President Embaló expelled the ECOWAS team, rejecting their intervention as an intrusion into his country’s internal affairs. Despite his warning against outside involvement, Embaló later confirmed intentions to pursue a second term in the upcoming elections, indicating a preference for French involvement over that of ECOWAS, potentially reflecting a notable shift in his foreign alliances.
Throughout this period, ECOWAS has maintained a notably quiet stance, raising pressing questions regarding its effectiveness in addressing the political crisis in Guinea-Bissau. The lack of decisive actions by ECOWAS stands in stark contrast to its past interventions in The Gambia and Niger, suggesting a concerning precedent for future regional political crises. It becomes essential to delineate what circumstances permit ECOWAS intervention versus those deemed internal affairs to maintain clarity among member states.
President Embaló, a past leader within ECOWAS, has exhibited a troubling disregard for effective governance amid this political turmoil. His approach has led Guinea-Bissau into increasing instability, potentially isolating him even against the backdrop of military threats. Questions arise regarding his reliance on French support during this crisis, raising concerns about the longevity and reliability of such alliances in a tumultuous environment. Ultimately, the decisions made by Embaló will play a pivotal role in shaping Guinea-Bissau’s future and determining ECOWAS’s credibility in maintaining peace and stability in West Africa.
In summary, President Umaro Mokhtar Sissoco Embaló’s controversial maneuvers, including the dissolution of parliament and the extension of his term, have precipitated significant political unrest in Guinea-Bissau. Despite facing opposition threats and the diplomatic efforts of ECOWAS, he remains defiant, signaling a preference for external support over regional cooperation. This scenario highlights the critical need for ECOWAS to clarify its role and authority, as its inaction may affect its legitimacy in future interventions across West Africa.
Original Source: thepoint.gm
