The Political Crisis in Guinea-Bissau: ECOWAS’s Struggle for Influence
President Embaló’s recent moves, including dissolving parliament, have led to political turmoil in Guinea-Bissau, as opposition leaders threaten protests. ECOWAS’s failed intervention raises concerns about its authority, while Embaló appears to favor French involvement. The ongoing uncertainty surrounding the political landscape holds significant implications for the country’s stability and regional governance.
In December 2019, President Umaro Mokhtar Sissoco Embaló of Guinea-Bissau won the presidential elections, beginning a five-year term with an eye on re-election in 2025. However, by December 2023, he dissolved parliament without scheduling new elections, prompting opposition accusations of power consolidation and constitutional violations. This contentious decision led opposition leaders to threaten protests and strikes in response to the lack of a clear election date.
A notable dispute centers on the termination date of Embaló’s presidential mandate. The opposition argues that it concludes on February 27, 2025, per the constitution, whereas the Supreme Court controversially extended it to September 4, 2025, a move rejected by opposition leaders, intensifying the political crisis.
Despite announcing in September 2024 that he would not seek re-election, President Embaló later suggested he might reconsider this decision after consulting with his family. This uncertainty aggravates the already volatile political situation in Guinea-Bissau, leading to unpredictable implications.
On March 3, 2025, an ECOWAS delegation aimed to mediate the escalating political impasse but was unceremoniously expelled by President Embaló. The encounter concluded with hostility and warnings from the President for ECOWAS to avoid interfering in Guinea-Bissau’s internal matters, leading to the delegation’s premature departure.
Following this diplomatic rejection, President Embaló confirmed to French President Emmanuel Macron his intentions to pursue a second term in the November elections, highlighting his acquiescence to French involvement over that of ECOWAS. This choice suggests a preference for cooperation with France, diverging from Guinea-Bissau’s historical ties with Portugal.
ECOWAS has not publicly responded to this situation, raising concerns about its authority and effectiveness in managing Embaló’s defiance. The regional body’s inaction contradicts its decisive interventions in The Gambia’s 2017 crisis and Niger’s 2023 upheaval, spotlighting its evolving role in West African governance and conflict resolution.
President Embaló, who previously led ECOWAS, is now perceived as neglecting his leadership responsibilities amidst this crisis. His decisions could potentially destabilize Guinea-Bissau further, leaving him vulnerable even to military coup threats, as fractures within the political landscape deepen.
A pivotal question remains—does President Embaló rely on France for protection, or on personal relations with President Macron? It may be prudent for him to seek advice from Senegal’s President Macky Sall regarding the reliability of such support within an unstable political context. Ultimately, the outcome of President Embaló’s decisions will significantly impact not only Guinea-Bissau but also the stature and future of ECOWAS in maintaining peace in West Africa.
The political crisis in Guinea-Bissau underscores the challenges facing President Embaló, particularly regarding his controversial decision to dissolve parliament and extend his mandate. ECOWAS’s inability to effectively intervene raises questions about its role and authority in the region. As the situation evolves, the implications of these events will be pivotal for Guinea-Bissau’s future and ECOWAS’s credibility in conflict resolution.
Original Source: thepoint.gm
