The RSF’s Self-Styled Government: Is Sudan Approaching a Partition?
The RSF has declared a rival government in Sudan, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis and territorial division. This announcement reflects ongoing tensions between the RSF and the SAF, undermining stability and complicating peace efforts. The situation is drawing international attention, with risks of deepening fragmentation in Sudan.
On 23 February, Sudan’s paramilitary group, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), declared the establishment of a self-styled ‘Government of Peace and Unity.’ This announcement highlights the ongoing conflict in Sudan, exacerbating the humanitarian crises, with over 14 million people displaced and widespread famine looming. The RSF’s actions deepen Sudan’s turmoil and threaten its territorial integrity amid a situation nearing de facto partition.
The RSF’s power struggle with the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) illustrates the fractures within Sudan’s power dynamics since the RSF separated from the SAF. The SAF initially gained control after the ousting of Omar al-Bashir in 2019, sharing power with civilians in a tenuous arrangement. However, escalating violence between the RSF and SAF undermines democratic aspirations, leaving civilians vulnerable as the factions vie for control.
With its charter signed in Nairobi, the RSF aims to fortify control over territories in western Sudan, including Darfur and parts of Kordofan. Suliman Baldo of the Sudan Transparency and Policy Tracker observed that this could entrench Sudan’s divisions into SAF and RSF-controlled areas. The RSF’s charter advocates for a secular, decentralized state but analysts warn it is an attempt to legitimize the group’s history of violence and human rights abuses.
Some suggest that the RSF’s formation of a parallel government resembles Libya’s deadlock, though experts argue that Sudan’s context, with its unique socio-economic conditions, differs significantly. Cameron Hudson, a CSIS senior fellow, noted that Sudan is already experiencing a de facto partition, particularly in areas under RSF control like Darfur, rendering the announcement more of a media strategy than a significant political shift.
Despite military setbacks, the RSF’s declaration poses a heightened risk of further unrest. Tensions persist as the SAF, led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, deems the rival government a threat to national unity, gaining ground especially in Greater Khartoum. Analysts warn that entrenched divisions could lead to a worsening humanitarian crisis and hinder peace. Dallia, a political analyst, emphasized that stability hinges on control over the strategic region of El-Fashir.
The formation of the RSF’s rival government has attracted international scrutiny. The United Nations and several MENA nations expressed concern, emphasizing that it could exacerbate Sudan’s fragmentation. Kenyan officials defended their hosting of RSF-led discussions as part of their peacekeeping role, while various global powers, including Iran, China, and Turkey, provide military support to the SAF. Observations highlight UAE’s involvement, leading analysts to draw parallels with conflicts in Yemen and Libya.
In conclusion, the RSF’s recent actions underscore the deepening political and territorial fractures in Sudan. As the international community grapples with an appropriate response, the potential for Sudan’s division looms large. Continued inaction may cement a state of de facto partition, further complicating the search for peace and stability in Sudan.
In summary, the RSF’s declaration of a rival government highlights the escalating conflict and humanitarian crisis in Sudan, threatening its territorial integrity and deepening existing divisions. The ongoing power struggle between the RSF and SAF, along with regional and international influences, complicates peace efforts. If the global community remains passive, Sudan may face a grim future marked by entrenched partitions and prolonged instability.
Original Source: www.newarab.com
