Understanding Egypt’s Post-War Gaza Plan and Its Implications for Hamas
Egypt has unveiled a plan for Gaza’s post-war reconstruction, which allocates $53 billion and details a five-year timeline. While Hamas is not explicitly mentioned, its role remains critical in governance discussions. The absence of the group from the proposal has sparked debate, but analysts assert that Hamas will still influence the future political landscape, particularly concerning governance and military presence.
Egypt has recently presented a 91-page plan aimed at the future of Gaza during an extraordinary Arab League summit held in Cairo. This proposal, which includes a $53 billion budget and a five-year reconstruction timeline, notably does not address Hamas despite the organization’s pivotal role in Gaza’s governance. Instead, the plan emphasizes a governance model led by a non-partisan technocratic committee for the initial six-month period, followed by a return of the Palestinian Authority (PA) to full control of Gaza.
The absence of Hamas from the plan has led to reports of the organization being sidelined, yet Hamas has expressed a positive reception towards the proposal, advocating for its implementation. Experts suggest that while Hamas’s political role may diminish, the group remains essential in any governance scenario. Qossay Hamed, a scholar on Hamas, remarked, “Nobody will rule Gaza without Hamas’ agreement.”
While Egypt’s plan does not explicitly name Hamas, it acknowledges the existence of armed groups in Gaza, hinting at ongoing military dynamics within the enclave. The proposal suggests that the resolution of armed conflicts between Palestinian factions is tied to addressing the underlying causes of these conflicts, notably the Israeli occupation. Annelle Sheline, a former US State Department official, indicated that if the United States continues its unwavering support for Israel, groups such as Hamas will likely retain their influence.
The plan additionally involves the training of Palestinian police forces by Egypt and Jordan and proposes a potential international presence to monitor the situation in Gaza and the West Bank. Analysts express that any efforts to replace or control the region’s governance without an agreement with Hamas would likely fail.
Many scholars underscore that although Hamas may reduce its overt control of Gaza, it will resist any disarmament of its military wing, indicating the ongoing significance of its armed presence. Historically, Hamas’s military capabilities have coexisted with varying degrees of political control and governance by other Palestinian factions.
Moreover, the PA, led by President Mahmoud Abbas, faces a legitimacy crisis among the Palestinian populace. The suggestion of a transitional electoral process comes in light of Abbas’s declining credibility due to perceived corruption. Additionally, political maneuvers involving exiled leaders such as Mohammed Dahlan are anticipated, though these may face challenges in gaining genuine support.
Lastly, there is speculation around Marwan Barghouti, a prominent and imprisoned political figure, who may serve as a unifying leader for various factions within Palestinian society. His release is currently under negotiation, which could potentially catalyze a shift in Palestinian leadership dynamics and the public’s expectations of governance in Gaza.
In summary, Egypt’s post-war Gaza plan aims for reconstruction and governance without directly involving Hamas, yet the group’s consent remains essential for any future political structure. As the situation evolves, the roles of the PA and Hamas will continue to shape the political landscape, heavily influenced by historical dynamics and public sentiment in the Palestinian territories. Legitimacy issues surrounding the PA and the emergence of influential figures like Barghouti will further complicate the governance environment in Gaza, underscoring the intricate interplay of power among Palestinian factions.
Original Source: www.middleeasteye.net
