Rising Tensions in South Sudan: Threats to the 2018 Peace Agreement

Tensions are escalating between President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar in South Sudan, following a series of military actions and arrests targeting Machar’s allies. Analysts warn that ongoing hostilities threaten the 2018 peace agreement, necessary governance, and exacerbate the humanitarian crisis. The international community calls for dialogue to prevent further conflict.

Tensions are escalating once more between President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar in South Sudan. Recently, President Kiir has initiated high-level arrests and removals of political and military figures as soldiers from the South Sudanese army encircle Machar’s residence in Juba, indicating a potential crisis. Machar, representing the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement in Opposition (SPLM/IO), is facing increasing pressure from Kiir, who leads the ruling Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM).

The history of conflict in South Sudan traces back to its independence in 2011, where initial unity soon deteriorated into factional divisions within the SPLM. Ethnicity has played a central role, specifically the Dinka and Nuer groups, which exploded into civil war in 2013 after Kiir dismissed Machar, who had been his vice president, leading to widespread violence and the establishment of the SPLM/IO by Machar.

Following five years of devastating conflict, a peace agreement was finally reached in 2018, known as the Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS). This agreement was intended to unite rival factions, establish a new constitution, and prepare for elections. However, progress remains stalled, with violence continuing in various regions amidst unresolved issues.

Tensions have been further incited by recent clashes in Upper Nile State, fueled by rumors of government plans to disarm local militias. The South Sudanese army reportedly engaged in confrontations with these armed groups, resulting in civilian casualties. The government has attributed blame to the White Army, a local Nuer militia, complicating the situation further.

In response to the rising tensions, Kiir has carried out a series of dismissals and arrests impacting individuals closely associated with Machar. Key figures, including General Gabriel Duop Lam and Petroleum Minister Puot Kang Chol, have been targeted, leading to heightened fears about the stability of the peace agreement. The SPLM/IO has stated that such actions undermine trust among parties involved in the peace process.

International responses have surfaced, underscoring the urgency of dialogue and peace. Kenyan President William Ruto has urged both leaders to communicate and work towards stabilization, while IGAD representatives have expressed concern regarding the violence in Nasir County, indicating a threat to the peace agreement. Multiple embassies have joined in calling for an end to hostilities and adherence to ceasefire conditions.

Analysts predict that ongoing political tension may further destabilize South Sudan, delaying essential governance tasks such as adopting a permanent constitution and conducting elections. Pro-democracy activist Mohammed Akot has called out both factions for their lack of political resolve, emphasizing that without genuine commitment, the possibility of renewed conflict remains high. The humanitarian situation also continues to deteriorate, with millions facing food shortages, underscoring the urgent need for a stable and functional government in South Sudan.

The recent surge in tensions between President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar poses significant risks to the fragile peace established by the 2018 agreement. With ongoing violence, political arrests, and international concern, there is a pressing need for effective dialogue and decisive action to prevent further destabilization. Addressing humanitarian crises exacerbated by conflict is equally critical to restore stability in South Sudan.

Original Source: www.aljazeera.com