Hezbollah’s Erosion: Implications for Lebanon’s Political Landscape

Hezbollah’s clout in Lebanon has diminished significantly after a war with Israel, raising questions about its future. Political changes signal a potential decline in Iranian influence, leading to a new era for Lebanon’s governance. Economic struggles persist as the nation grapples with poverty, but prospects for reform and stabilization are emerging.

Hezbollah, established in 1982 and traditionally strong in political and military prowess within Lebanon, is experiencing a significant decline in influence following a detrimental war with Israel. This conflict has devastated its leadership, financial resources, and military capabilities, leading many to question its future and role in Lebanon.

As the Lebanese populace grows increasingly supportive of a new governmental era where state authority supersedes armed groups, experts suggest that while Hezbollah remains present, its transformation is critical. Michael Young from the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center emphasizes the desire for Lebanon to have a monopoly over weapons.

The strategic defeat of the Assad regime in Syria has further isolated Hezbollah by disrupting its supply lines from Iran, thus limiting its capacity to influence domestic affairs. Reports indicate a financial crisis within the group, hampering its ability to assist wounded members and fund reconstruction in previously strongholds devastated by Israeli strikes.

Recent political developments indicate a shift in Lebanon. The election of Joseph Aoun as president and Nawaf Salam as prime minister signifies a potential decline in Iranian influence, supported by international allies like the US and Saudi Arabia. Aoun’s visit to Saudi Arabia aims to restore bilateral relations and financial support for the Lebanese army.

However, Hezbollah supporters face significant turmoil following the loss of its leader Hassan Nasrallah amid military setbacks. This change affects the Shiite community that had previously relied on Hezbollah’s leadership as a source of pride.

The recent conflict beginning in October 2023 led to intensifying exchanges of fire and significant Israeli military response. The destruction of Hezbollah’s communication infrastructure and subsequent casualties highlighted its vulnerability. Nasrallah’s death in September 2024 marked a decisive blow for the group.

While Hezbollah’s defeat has allowed for a potential reshaping of Lebanon’s governance, the country’s struggle with economic hardship persists, with the currency devaluing by over 90 percent since 2019 and poverty rates soaring. Critics argue that claims of Hezbollah’s victory are misplaced, pointing to the region’s ongoing instability and humanitarian issues.

International diplomatic efforts have called for disarmament of non-state actors, setting a challenging backdrop for Lebanon’s future. In light of political realignment, President Aoun is pushing for a new course, reflecting a possible departure from Hezbollah’s longstanding dominance. As alternatives to Hezbollah emerge among the populace, its capability to protect and provide for the community is under scrutiny, suggesting a new trajectory for Lebanon.

Hezbollah’s significant weakening, exacerbated by internal strife and external conflict, has initiated a transformative moment for Lebanon. With new political leadership signaling a potential end to Iranian domination, the Lebanese people are hopeful for a return to stability and reconstruction. However, economic recovery remains critical, and the change of guardianship from Hezbollah may bring both opportunities and challenges as the nation seeks to redefine its future.

Original Source: www.arabnews.pk