Erdogan’s Fortunate Developments Amid Geopolitical Shifts
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan appears to benefit from favorable geopolitical developments, including the Assad regime’s fall in Syria, potential resolution of the Kurdish conflict, and opportunities arising from the Ukraine crisis. Despite this, significant challenges remain, including the need for careful negotiation and the uncertainty of U.S. defense commitments in Europe.
At present, geopolitical conditions may appear favorable for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has been in power for over two decades. With aspirations to extend his term beyond 2028, Erdogan seems to benefit from several concurrent developments that support his foreign policy and economic objectives. Emre Peker, an expert from Eurasia Group, emphasizes that Erdogan now has a higher chance of fulfilling these goals than he has in the past decade.
Key developments include the departure of the Assad regime in Syria. Erdogan has significantly invested efforts for Assad’s downfall, aiming to facilitate the return of millions of Syrian refugees to Turkey, with over 80,000 already repatriated. Furthermore, Turkey has established a military partnership with Ahmad al-Sharaa’s Syrian government, post-Assad, which could enhance Ankara’s influence in the region.
Moreover, a resolution to the longstanding Kurdish issue may be on the horizon; the PKK, primarily a Kurdish militant group, has indicated its willingness to disarm after four decades of conflict. This potential development promises to conclude years of violence and loss.
The situation in Ukraine also presents opportunities for Turkey, particularly if a ceasefire occurs. Erdogan has fostered relations with both Russia and Ukraine, positioning Turkey as a potential mediator. Reconstruction in Ukraine could open significant avenues for Turkish construction firms, enhancing the nation’s economic outlook.
Additionally, with Turkey’s economy showing signs of improvement, inflation has dipped to 39%, the lowest in two years, while GDP grew by 3.2% last year, surpassing expectations. The central bank has been cautiously reducing interest rates, contributing to a favorable economic climate.
Despite these positive indicators, several challenges loom ahead. The Syrian landscape, fraught with sectarian tensions, could destabilize rapidly, undermining Erdogan’s hopes for economic benefits. Peker warns that instability could arise should the new Syrian government falter in maintaining order.
Achieving a resolution with the Kurds will also require careful negotiation. Erdogan’s current coalition lacks the necessary votes to amend the constitution or call for early elections, meaning Kurdish cooperation is essential. However, this necessitates balancing autonomy for Kurds while appeasing nationalist factions within Erdogan’s coalition.
Moreover, changes in U.S. defense commitments in Europe pose risks for Turkey. While Ankara could capitalize on potential European defense spending, nations may prefer to keep investments localized, disregarding Turkey. The loss of American military support, including the strategic presence at the Incirlik airbase, could significantly impact Turkey’s security positioning.
In summary, while Erdogan finds himself in a seemingly advantageous position due to various developments, significant uncertainties persist. These complexities demand careful navigation to ensure Turkey emerges successfully from the current geopolitical landscape.
In conclusion, President Erdogan’s current political and economic situation appears promising, bolstered by developments in Syria, potential resolutions to the Kurdish issue, and opportunities from the Ukraine conflict. However, the complexities and uncertainties surrounding these conditions necessitate cautious strategy and diplomacy. As Peker indicates, despite favorable movements, the outcomes remain uncertain, and Turkey’s future strength is not guaranteed.
Original Source: www.gzeromedia.com
