Ecuador’s Presidential Elections: The Controversial Push for Foreign Military Support
Ecuador’s President Daniel Noboa proposes incorporating foreign military forces to combat rising drug trafficking and crime. Following an alarming increase in homicides, Noboa faces declining approval ratings and calls for a military aid plan similar to Colombia’s. Experts recommend focusing on social policies rather than military intervention to address the underlying issues of safety and governance as elections approach.
As Ecuador approaches the second round of presidential elections scheduled for April 13, incumbent President Daniel Noboa has proposed the inclusion of foreign military special forces to combat drug trafficking and transnational organized crime. This initiative follows Noboa’s earlier efforts to amend the constitution for establishing foreign military bases in response to escalating violence in the nation.
Since Noboa’s election in October 2023, Ecuador has experienced a surge in homicides, establishing itself as the most violent country in Latin America. The nation recorded 1,300 murders in the first 50 days of 2025, representing a notable 40% increase from the same period in 2023. Positioned between Colombia and Peru, the world’s largest cocaine producers, Ecuador has also risen to prominence in global cocaine exports, contributing to the ongoing challenges of organized crime amidst unstable governmental structures.
In the wake of increasingly violent gang activity, U.S. security experts have suggested a variant of “Plan Colombia” for Ecuador, designed to bolster security against prevalent organized crime. This plan, a historical U.S. military and counternarcotics funding initiative, had previously contributed to significant crime reduction in Colombia’s urban centers. However, the absence of some insurgent groups created a power vacuum that drug trafficking routes have since exploited in Ecuador.
The Biden administration has reacted proactively to Ecuador’s declaration of a war on crime by sending senior officials for strategic discussions with President Noboa. These meetings have resulted in various agreements focused on defense and intelligence capabilities, accentuated by a bilateral “status of forces” agreement that grants U.S. military personnel specific legal protections. This includes a five-year, $93 million aid initiative from SOUTHCOM, which has provided military equipment and personnel to support Ecuador’s law enforcement efforts.
In July 2024, Matrix Aviation Inc. registered as a foreign agent for Ecuador’s Defense Ministry with the aim of leveraging U.S. government funding through the Foreign Military Financing program. The initiative aims to combat drug trafficking and bolster national security under the direction of Defense Minister Gian Carlo Loffredo, who has a background underpinning his role without formal military experience.
President Noboa is actively seeking to secure further military support from the Trump administration as he approaches the elections. His connection to the previous U.S. administration poses a strategic advantage in lobbying for increased American military assistance as violence continues to escalate in Ecuador. This political maneuver is also entangled with the opposition candidate Luisa Gonzalez, whose affiliation with former President Rafael Correa’s administration has positioned her favorably among voters.
Despite nominal reductions in crime, Noboa’s approval ratings have seen a steep decline, which can be attributed to continued violence and deinstitutionalization throughout the country. Observers advocate that addressing long-standing socio-economic factors may prove more beneficial than an increased military presence.
Experts such as Pedro Labayen Herrera and Isabel Chiriboga emphasize that investments in social policies addressing poverty and inequality could restore safety far more effectively than military intervention. Moreover, they caution against the potential backlash that may arise from deploying military forces on Ecuadorian soil, noting the potential threat to national sovereignty.
The current economic conditions further challenge the Noboa administration’s prospects for substantial U.S. military funding. With recent sanctions from Russia impacting Ecuador’s critical export economy, the administration faces mounting pressure. Additionally, promises of support under the U.S.-Ecuador Partnership Act have proven inadequate, as the economy continues to struggle in the wake of austerity measures and the ramifications of the pandemic.
As the election date approaches, Noboa’s reliance on strategies that have been largely unsuccessful, compounded by existing socio-economic issues and public discontent, may hinder his capacity to demonstrate to voters that he can regain peace and security in Ecuador. The electoral outcome on April 13 will be crucial in determining the country’s path forward amidst growing challenges in governance and public safety.
In summary, as Ecuador approaches its critical presidential elections, President Daniel Noboa is advocating for increased foreign military support to combat rampant crime and drug trafficking. Despite prior reductions in crime, significant challenges remain, including his declining approval ratings and adverse economic conditions. Experts suggest that addressing social issues and strengthening governance may be more effective than an increased militarized approach. The upcoming election will be pivotal in shaping Ecuador’s future amidst these pressing issues.
Original Source: responsiblestatecraft.org
