Grand Strategy: The Case for Indian Mediation in the Ukraine War

India is encouraged to mediate in the Ukraine-Russia war, as its prior non-condemnation of Russia and strategic balancing have positioned it advantageously. The ongoing negotiations in Riyadh present an opportunity for India to propose mediation among the conflicting parties, capitalizing on its acceptability and geopolitical aspirations. Concerns over failure should not impede this initiative, as successful mediation can yield lasting national and international benefits.

The notion that India must first enhance its power before engaging in global conflicts, such as the Ukraine-Russia war, is erroneous. The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) expressed last year, prior to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Kyiv in August, that India is open to providing necessary support for peaceful resolutions. It is opportune for New Delhi to actively facilitate the cessation of hostilities between Russia and Ukraine now.

India’s decision to refrain from condemning Russia post-invasion and its strategy to maintain a balanced approach between Russia and the West have produced favorable outcomes. New Delhi can take pride in its strategic choices made thus far. However, with the evolving dynamics of international politics, particularly under the influence of US President Trump, India must not remain passive.

Current negotiations in Riyadh to resolve the Ukraine conflict present a pivotal moment for India to propose its mediation, potentially hosting discussions for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, involving American participation. India stands at a crossroads, with critical opportunities to engage all involved parties.

There are three compelling reasons for India to step forward now as a mediator. First, the timing is crucial; while Russia seeks to conclude the ongoing sanctions through dialogue with the US, discussions in Riyadh have notably excluded Ukraine thus far. Additionally, the emerging partnership between India and Europe could facilitate vital consultations among all relevant nations, allowing India to play a crucial mediating role.

Second, India possesses a level of acceptability among the main stakeholders of the conflict. As one of the few major nations that can garner respect from both Ukraine and Russia, India is positioned uniquely to foster dialogue, a privilege not easily extended to countries like China.

Third, India’s involvement in mediation would serve its national interests, enhancing its status as a global power. Engaging in such mediation would enable India to establish deeper connections with global capitals, particularly in a multi-polar world where influence depends on participation in discussions.

Furthermore, a successful ceasefire will likely involve Ukraine seeking assurances against future Russian aggression, making Indian peacekeepers a suitable option due to their proven neutrality and experience. Instead of merely contributing to a solution crafted by others, India should aim for direct negotiation and active involvement in maintaining peace.

Three main concerns hinder India’s engagement in mediation. Primarily, there is a fear of failure; apprehension about whether diplomatic efforts would yield tangible results. Nevertheless, past experiences show that even if negotiations do not achieve their intended objectives, the geopolitical benefits for the mediator often outweigh the risks.

Moreover, acting as a facilitator can provide essential avenues for negotiation, enabling adversaries to find moments for productive dialogue. Practically, India should consider appointing a special envoy who can reach out discreetly to the conflicting parties to gauge their positions and secure a neutral venue for discussions.

The belief that India must wait until it grows stronger to mediate conflicts is unfounded. Comparatively, India’s GDP far surpasses that of other nations involved in mediation, highlighting that influence stems from political will and opportunity rather than economic size alone. For a nation historically mediated by others, it is time for India to take the initiative in resolving global conflicts.

In conclusion, India’s potential role as a mediator in the Ukraine-Russia war aligns with its aspirations to be recognized as a significant player in international relations. The strategic interests, unique acceptability among nations involved, and the imperative for active participation in crucial discussions provide a compelling case for India’s engagement. Rather than waiting for greater power or influence, India should recognize this critical moment for mediation and strive to transcend traditional roles by actively pursuing diplomatic resolutions.

Original Source: www.hindustantimes.com