Saudi Arabia’s Strategic Influence Over Lebanon: A New Political Era

Following the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, Saudi Arabia has embarked on a strategic initiative to exert influence in Lebanon’s political sphere. The kingdom’s return is characterized by conditional support contingent upon curbing Hezbollah’s power. President Joseph Aoun is striving to rebuild ties with Riyadh, but the underlying agenda raises concerns about Lebanon’s potential normalization with Israel and the implications for regional stability.

The ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, brokered in November following extensive conflict, marks the onset of a new phase in Lebanon’s political turmoil. Although neither side achieved a definitive military victory, the United States and its allies perceive this as an opportunity to exploit Lebanon’s weakened state to induce political reforms that had previously failed through force. Saudi Arabia has been designated as the primary actor in this endeavor, leveraging its historical ties and influence over Sunni factions in Lebanon.

Saudi Arabia swiftly adapted its policies regarding Lebanon, transferring oversight of the Lebanese affairs from the Royal Court to the Foreign Ministry, indicating a shift towards a more proactive diplomatic approach. The newly appointed team has engaged in significant outreach, reconnecting with various Lebanese factions and pressing on pivotal issues, notably the presidential election and government formation, as they seek to re-establish their influence post-conflict.

Following its abrupt disengagement in 2017, when it forced former prime minister Saad Hariri to resign, Saudi Arabia’s current strategy emphasizes conditionality in its support for Lebanon. President Joseph Aoun’s efforts to mend ties with Riyadh, underscored by his visit to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, signal Lebanon’s desire to recover politically and economically. However, Saudi Arabia’s backing is contingent upon specific demands, including curtailing Hezbollah’s power and asserting state control over its territories.

As the scrutiny from Saudi Arabia and the United States intensifies, Lebanon is compelled to demonstrate alignment with their expectations. This includes restricting Hezbollah’s financial resources and dismantling its operational capacities. Journalist Maysam Rizk pointed out, “Saudi Arabia, alongside the US, views Lebanon as being on probation,” rigorously observing the government’s dealings with Hezbollah in the aftermath of the conflict.

In a redefined geopolitical landscape, Saudi Arabia is strategically positioning itself to regain its influence, employing financial resources as leverage against its competitors, including Qatar. This approach seeks to exploit the political vulnerabilities that materialized during the war, guiding Lebanon’s future to favor Saudi interests while mirroring the US strategy of diminishing resistance.

Analysts assert that Saudi Arabia is capitalizing on Israel’s military actions as an opportunity to fortify alliances within Lebanon and weaken Hezbollah. Research indicates that recent regional shifts, particularly regarding Syria, are prompting Riyadh to enhance its involvement in Lebanon. As Dr. Fouad Ibrahim noted, Saudi Arabia intends to support a political structure in Lebanon that fortifies its allies while undermining the resistance.

Concerns are also emerging regarding whether Riyadh intends to push Lebanon towards normalization with Israel as a broader objective. This potential strategy seems geared toward consolidating power by manipulating Lebanon’s political and financial systems to align with American and Israeli interests, focusing particularly on building a consensus within Lebanon’s Sunni community regarding regional conflicts.

President Joseph Aoun is attempting to revive Lebanon’s relations with Saudi Arabia, hoping upcoming discussions will yield concessions such as lifted travel bans and renewed support for economic recovery. However, current signs suggest Riyadh remains hesitant, scrutinizing Lebanon’s adherence to its conditions.

In conclusion, Saudi Arabia is redefining its role in Lebanese affairs, generating new expectations for political compliance under the guise of support. The evolving dynamics between Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, and regional influences present complex challenges. Lebanon now faces a crucial decision: either align with this new order or resist, with each pathway presenting significant risks and uncertainties concerning its future stability.

In summary, Saudi Arabia’s renewed engagement in Lebanon post-ceasefire is characterized by a strategic recalibration that emphasizes conditional support centered around curtailing Hezbollah’s influence. Lebanon is under scrutiny to align its governance with Saudi and American objectives, which may include normalization with Israel. The consequences of compliance versus resistance present a precarious balance, posing substantial risks for the nation’s future political and economic stability. As Lebanon navigates this challenging landscape, its choices will undoubtedly shape the regional power dynamics for years to come.

Original Source: thecradle.co