South Sudan on the Brink of Renewed Conflict and Instability

South Sudan is facing the imminent threat of renewed conflict as tensions rise between President Kiir and Vice President Machar following violent incidents involving ethnic militias. The fragile peace established in 2018 is jeopardized by external pressures, including the civil war in Sudan that has severely impacted South Sudan’s economy. The international community must urgently intervene to prevent escalation into full-scale violence and humanitarian disaster.

South Sudan is on the brink of renewed conflict and political turmoil following the capture of an army base in Nasir by a Nuer militia allied with Riek Machar, the first vice president and former rebel leader. President Salva Kiir has responded by arresting several of Machar’s allies, raising tensions in the capital city, Juba. This instability poses a significant threat to the fragile unity government established under a 2018 peace agreement, which attempted to end a brutal five-year civil war. The situation in Upper Nile could intensify, with the potential for conflict to spill over into Sudan, escalating a regional proxy war.

The tenuous 2018 agreement between Kiir and Machar has staved off large-scale conflict but has not eliminated violence at local levels. Tensions have increased recently due to the civil war in Sudan, which began in April 2023, further complicating relations. The conflict has severely damaged South Sudan’s economy, particularly following a major oil pipeline rupture that has left the country without its main revenue source. The fiscal crisis arising has weakened Kiir’s capacity to maintain control, leading to widespread discontent.

President Kiir has found it challenging to navigate relations between Sudan’s conflicting military leaders, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and General Hemedti of the RSF. The geopolitical struggles have intensified, especially concerning the oil pipeline essential for the economic stability of South Sudan, where allegations have surfaced regarding the RSF facilitating damage to the pipeline as a strategic maneuver against Kiir’s government. Kiir’s attempts to stabilize relations with the RSF may see Juba moving closer to this faction while straining ties with Burhan.

The potential for the Sudanese military to exploit ethnic divides in South Sudan poses another threat. The Nuer and Dinka ethnic groups have historical tensions, and reports suggest that Burhan’s forces may be re-engaging with Nuer militias, providing arms in exchange for support, indicating that violence could spread rapidly along the border region. If hostilities escalate to significant battles, especially in mixed-ethnic areas such as Malakal, escalating violence could extend across South Sudan, exacerbating an already fragile situation.

Currently, the violence is concentrated in Upper Nile, with fears of escalating unrest in Juba, where Machar remains vulnerable. Hostility has risen following military casualties, notably the death of Major General Majur Dak, which has potentially raised ethnic tensions further. There are concerns that Kiir could manipulate these circumstances to consolidate his base among the Dinka by portraying Machar’s faction as threats to security.

The precariousness of the current regime raises alarms about the potential collapse of both Kiir’s rule and the 2018 agreement, which could usher in further ethnic cleansing and violent conflict across South Sudan. Such instability may catalyze external meddling in South Sudan’s internal affairs, leading to greater chaos and suffering for the populace.

The urgency for diplomatic intervention cannot be overstated. Leaders from Kenya, South Africa, and Ethiopia must coordinate efforts to bring both Kiir and Machar to the negotiating table and de-escalate existing tensions. The United Nations, with its peacekeeping presence, should be poised to mitigate violence should it erupt while providing refuge to civilians caught in potential crossfire. Prompt action from influential leaders could prevent a descent into full-scale conflict and ethnic violence throughout South Sudan.

The situation in South Sudan is precariously balanced, with recent events highlighting the imminent threat of renewed conflict. The internal divisions exacerbated by external influences, notably the ongoing war in Sudan, have increased the risk of ethnic violence and further instability. Regional leaders and international actors must act swiftly and decisively to foster dialogue and prevent a return to civil war, as the consequences of inaction would be catastrophic for South Sudan and the broader region.

Original Source: www.pmldaily.com