Renewed Tensions in South Sudan: The Threat of Civil War
South Sudan experiences heightened tensions between President Kiir and First Vice President Machar, raising fears of renewed civil war. Key developments include violent clashes in Nasir and a reshuffle of ministers by Kiir. Analysts warn that without urgent dialogue, the fragile 2018 peace agreement may collapse, jeopardizing the country’s stability and democratic progress.
South Sudan faces escalating tensions between President Salva Kiir and First Vice President Riek Machar, prompting concerns of a potential return to civil war. Analyst Edmund Yakani warns that failure to address these tensions may result in a resurgence of conflict, as disagreements over military personnel have spurred violent clashes and high-profile arrests of military and political figures.
Following a recent cabinet reshuffle by Kiir, which is perceived as a response to the political crisis, the fragile peace established by the 2018 agreement is now at risk. The U.S. has also issued an evacuation order for non-emergency personnel, citing increased security concerns.
Intensifying violence was exemplified on March 4 when a militia associated with Machar seized an army base in Nasir. The International Crisis Group reported the White Army, a militia linked to Machar’s Nuer ethnic group, engaged in battles with government forces.
The escalation of violence reached new heights with the death of 27 individuals during an attack on a UN helicopter in Nasir. Analysts argue that the ongoing lack of trust between Kiir and Machar is undermining stability in South Sudan, with both leaders repeatedly accusing each other of failing to uphold commitments since the ceasefire initiated in 2018.
Recent reports from the International Crisis Group indicate that South Sudan is at risk of slipping back into full-scale conflict unless political dialogue is encouraged. Both Yakani and senior analyst Daniel Akech emphasize that this precarious situation hinges upon the leaders’ capacity to effectively communicate and de-escalate tensions.
The UN Commission on Human Rights highlighted that the continuing violence jeopardizes the 2018 peace agreement, which should be moving towards implementation. Yasmin Sooka, chairperson of the commission, urged leaders to refocus on the peace process and prioritize the human rights of South Sudanese citizens rather than exacerbating divisions. However, experts suggest that deep-rooted problems within the power-sharing deal have hindered collaboration between Kiir and Machar, increasing the risk of further instability.
In summary, the political climate in South Sudan is increasingly fraught, characterized by intensifying tensions between President Kiir and First Vice President Machar. Renewed conflicts may occur unless immediate dialogue and de-escalation efforts are pursued. The integrity of the 2018 peace agreement remains in jeopardy amidst escalating violence. Analysts emphasize the critical role of leadership in restoring stability and avoiding a return to civil war, highlighting an urgent need for positive, cooperative action from both leaders.
Original Source: www.aa.com.tr
