The Struggle for Syria: Post-Assad Political Landscape and Regional Implications
Patrick Seale’s “The Struggle for Syria” analyzes the historical context of Syria’s political turmoil and the impact of both regional and international powers. The fall of the Assad regime marks a significant shift in governance, with al-Joulani of HTS now in control, presenting both opportunities and challenges amid a fractured geopolitical landscape.
Patrick Seale’s seminal work, “The Struggle for Syria,” published in 1965, highlights that the fragmented Syrian state has long been a battleground for regional and international powers seeking dominance. The instability was evident as three coups occurred within Syria in 1949, leading to a short-lived union with Egypt and a restoration of independence in 1961. It was not until 1971 that Hafez al-Assad established a robust state, offering stability at the cost of a repressive regime dominated by the Alawite minority.
Upon Hafez al-Assad’s death in 2000, his son Bashar al-Assad ascended to power, possessing a mixed record. His governance faced tremendous challenges during the Syrian Arab Spring, which ultimately evolved into a devastating civil war. Despite a military intervention by Russia and Iran in 2015 that temporarily stabilized Assad’s regime, the civil war concluded in December 2016. However, Syria remained divided, with Assad’s control extending over only 60 percent of the territory, while 40 percent was under the influence of various groups including Turkey and Kurdish forces.
As the Assad regime attempted to regain power, particularly targeting the Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in Idlib, Turkey intervened to prevent refugee influx. A military offensive led by HTS successfully gained ground, culminating in the fall of Aleppo and then Damascus by December 2024, which marked the end of the Assad dynasty. Bashar al-Assad fled to Moscow, leaving the HTS and its leader, Abu Mohammad al-Joulani, in control.
The ousting of the Assad regime signifies a pivotal shift in Syrian politics, whereby the Alawite majority lost its dominance, retreating to their traditional regions. A new, unfamiliar regime under al-Joulani raises critical questions about future governance and stability. Al-Joulani’s past ties to Al-Qaeda complicate his position as he attempts to present a more moderate image to the international community.
Domestically, al-Joulani faces the challenges of unifying Syria and effectively engaging with various groups, including the Kurds and Alawites. Regionally, the emergence of an HTS-led government is a significant setback for Iran, which lost a vital proxy in its strategic interests. Concurrently, this situation presents an opportunity for Turkey to enhance its influence in Syria, potentially fostering closer ties with the new regime, while other nations like Saudi Arabia and the Emirates express interest in fostering relationships with the HTS-dominated government.
Additionally, Israel remains deeply concerned about the prospect of extremist groups acquiring advanced weaponry within Syria. Joulani’s lack of immediate response to Israeli provocations suggests a degree of pragmatism as he navigates the complexities of regional politics. Meanwhile, the U.S. policy remains uncertain, as the Trump Administration deliberates its approach in a landscape with growing aspirations for an Islamic governance in Syria.
In conclusion, the current phase in Syria marks a renewed struggle for power and influence, posing challenges and opportunities for regional players. The transition from an Assad-led regime to one governed by HTS introduces uncertainties regarding Syria’s political trajectory, amid significant influences from Turkey, Iran, and international actors such as the U.S. The future of Syrian governance highly depends on al-Joulani’s political maneuvers and the external responses from major powers.
The dynamics in Syria are undergoing significant transformation following the fall of the Assad regime. With the HTS now in power, challenges related to governance, regional influence, and international relations are paramount. The absence of a coherent political agenda from the new leadership raises concerns about stability and the potential for conflict. Concurrently, the evolving regional landscape, particularly in relation to Turkey, Iran, and Israel, will shape the future security and political orientation of Syria, highlighting the delicate balance of power in the Middle East.
Original Source: www.hoover.org
