Syria’s Surge in Violence Does Not Signal a New Civil War—for Now
A recent increase in violence from Assad loyalists in Syria has cast doubt on the nation’s stability. Despite fears of renewed civil war, the new leadership underscores a commitment to economic recovery and inclusivity. External influences, including potential Iranian intervention, and cautious regional responses characterize the current landscape. The United States has refrained from direct involvement, focusing instead on facilitating negotiations with Kurdish forces to help unify the country.
Recent violence in Syria, particularly actions from loyalists of former President Bashar al-Assad, has raised concerns about a potential return to sectarian conflict. Following the overthrow of Assad’s regime in December, unrest has resulted in numerous civilian casualties. The ongoing strife primarily involves well-armed Assad loyalists located in western regions, including Latakia. Despite worries about escalating violence, there are avenues for stabilization under the new leadership of Ahmed al-Sharaa and his coalition, Ha’yat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).
The recent surge in violence was anticipated due to the presence of Assad loyalists who, despite fleeing, are still concentrated in specific areas of Syria. Intelligence suggests that Iran may be instigating violence to regain influence in the region, although the accusations remain unverified. Al-Sharaa’s security forces engaged in aggressive actions against these loyalists, leading to several civilians being harmed in the process. Reports of mass violence against Alawites and Christians paint a troubling picture, but the accuracy of these claims is questionable amid extensive misinformation.
Despite the alarming developments, it is crucial to note that public sentiment against Assad loyalists is largely negative due to their history of human rights abuses, including torture and chemical weapon usage. Al-Sharaa and his administration face the challenge of managing this unrest while simultaneously addressing economic crises, which saw a substantial contraction during the civil conflict. If they fail to promote economic recovery or respect minority rights, further dissent could erode their authority.
Efforts by al-Sharaa to seek financial assistance from neighboring countries demonstrate his intent to stabilize the economy and promote inclusivity. His commitment to creating a “Syria for all Syrians” raises questions about whether this represents a genuine policy direction or merely a strategic diplomatic maneuver. As the situation evolves, the international community remains attentive to any sectarian conflicts that could prompt foreign intervention.
There are concerns that external actors may be tempted to intervene, particularly with reports of Iran’s involvement in Syrian affairs; however, substantial evidence remains elusive. Major Arab nations prefer to avoid entanglement in another proxy war and are concentrated on domestic issues rather than the Syrian crisis. Still, the political landscape could shift, potentially leading to renewed regional focus on Syria.
The United States has expressed reluctance to engage in Syria, emphasizing that it is not an American conflict. Nevertheless, recent developments have included U.S.-backed negotiations with the Kurdish-aligned Syrian Democratic Forces aimed at military integration, which could be pivotal for national reconstruction. Meanwhile, Turkey’s involvement stems from strategic desires to exert influence and combat perceived threats from Kurdish movements. Maintaining an ally in Damascus, similar to the previous regime, serves Turkey’s broader ambitions within the region.
Syria currently faces significant domestic violence stemming from residual Assad loyalists, yet there remains a possibility of stabilization under new governance. Al-Sharaa’s administration must navigate complex challenges, including economic recovery and maintaining the rights of diverse communities, to effectively quell dissent and prevent a civil war. While the situation has drawn attention from various external actors, avoidance of further proxy conflicts remains a priority for key regional powers. Continued diplomatic efforts are crucial as Syria seeks to reestablish itself post-conflict.
Original Source: www.cfr.org
