Dry Weather Threatens Brazil’s Sugarcane Crop Amid Uncertain Forecasts

Brazil’s sugarcane production faces challenges due to ongoing dry weather and recent drought. While some forecasts suggest minor production increases, many producers expect declines in yield. Poor sprouting and varied rainfall contribute to the uncertainty regarding crop outcomes for the approaching season.

The ongoing dry weather poses significant risks to Brazil’s sugarcane crop for the 2025/26 season, commencing in April. A recent lack of rainfall in February and early March has exacerbated impacts from the preceding drought and wildfires affecting the agricultural sector. Forecasts vary; some analysts predict an increase in sugarcane crushing, yet many producers fear an impending decline in yield.

Consultancy firm Datagro has projected a production level of 612 million tonnes, a 1.4% decrease from the previous season. However, differing perspectives exist within the industry. On a more optimistic note, Hedgepoint forecasts a harvest of 630 million tonnes due to slightly better rainfall conditions, as stated by Carlos Mello, head of sugar at Hedgepoint Global Markets. He cautions, however, that moisture levels may diminish from March to May, impacting output.

Conversely, trading firm Sucden adopts a somber outlook, estimating production between 590 million and 600 million tonnes, according to senior trader Ulysses Carvalho. Producers express even greater concern, with José Guilherme Nogueira, president of Orplana, anticipating a minimum 15% decline based on industry discussions.

The growth of sugarcane is hindered by poor sprouting, and fields unaffected by fires are also struggling, as noted by Azael Pizzolato Júnior, owner of Ipê Agrícola. He has encountered issues of ratoon crops failing to regenerate, necessitating replanting. In Jaú, São Paulo, a particularly impacted area, Eduardo Romão of the Jaú Sugarcane Growers Association remarks on the stunted growth of sugarcane plants, attributing a predicted 25% drop in productivity to insufficient rainfall.

Regions like Ribeirão Preto face significant rainfall deficits, anticipating lower yields overall. However, areas such as Piracicaba and Pirassununga remain relatively less affected. Datagro’s mapping indicates drought conditions in Ribeirão Preto and Araçatuba, with February’s rainfall reported to be 26.5% and 43.1% below average, respectively.

While soil water storage levels exceed 70% in various regions, this figure was previously higher. Datagro indicates that early harvest productivity may decline due to inadequate sprouting and shortened cane internodes. The projected stability in yields for the latter part of the season remains contingent on rainfall in April, as emphasized by Plínio Nastari, president of Datagro.

In conclusion, Brazil’s sugarcane crop faces serious threats from ongoing dry conditions, with forecasts showing a potential decrease in production for the upcoming season. Various firms present differing perspectives, with some projecting minor increases while others predict significant declines. Challenges such as poor sprouting, drought, and varied rainfall patterns contribute to uncertainty in yield outcomes, particularly as April forecasts loom. Overall, the situation remains fluid, necessitating careful monitoring.

Original Source: valorinternational.globo.com