Hamas’s Strategy to Transform Gaza: A Parallel to Hezbollah’s Lebanon Model

Hamas intends to maintain military control over Gaza while seeking a ceasefire, resembling Hezbollah’s structure in Lebanon. Proposals for governance by the Palestinian Authority risk enabling Hamas to regain strength. Israel must decisively act to dismantle Hamas’s military capabilities, ensuring long-term regional security and preventing the organization from exploiting international governance frameworks.

Hamas aims to secure a ceasefire while retaining military dominance over Gaza, akin to Hezbollah’s previous control in Lebanon. Israel must prevent this scenario, particularly if pushed by Egypt. The organization’s objective is to rebuild its military strength and political authority, potentially mirroring Hezbollah’s governance structure that masked its militant control behind an internationally recognized regime.

Hamas’s intentions could permit it to regroup and rearm, paving the way for renewed hostilities against Israel. Various proposals suggested by Egypt and others, including a Palestinian Authority-led administration, risk recreating a Lebanon-like situation. These occur while Israel’s military campaign against Hamas remains incomplete.

During a recent summit, Egyptian President Fateh El-Sisi emphasized Egypt’s commitment to Palestinian rights and opposed any plans that might displace them. He supported a ceasefire and the establishment of a Palestinian state, while suggesting a temporary administration by independent technocrats. However, specifics regarding governance and financing for Gaza’s reconstruction remain unclear.

Recent reports indicate Hamas’s begrudging acceptance of proposals to transfer control of Gaza to the Palestinian Authority, allegedly under Egyptian advice. Nonetheless, Israeli officials, like Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s spokesperson, have dismissed these claims. Moreover, despite claims of cooperation, Hamas’s main intent appears to be retaining control over Gaza, regardless of administrative changes.

The model Hamas seeks to adopt is reflective of Hezbollah’s regime in Lebanon, where the group maintained significant military power amid a nominally sovereign government. Hezbollah’s dominance allowed it to dictate security and wield veto power over decisions, all while exploiting governmental legitimacy for strategic advantages.

Should Hamas successfully implement a similar strategy in Gaza, it may rebuild its military potency while constraining Israeli action through perceived diplomatic recognition. Any attempt by Israel to counter Hamas would likely provoke international accusations of violating Gaza’s sovereignty, undermining Israel’s operational effectiveness against the group.

The repercussions of allowing Hamas to settle into a governance structure would be severe, enabling it to enhance military capabilities unhindered. Israel must, therefore, consider a robust re-engagement in Gaza to disrupt Hamas’s military infrastructure decisively, ensuring Israel’s long-term security.

Achieving complete dismantling of Hamas’s command structure is essential to any future governance arrangement. Only by neutralizing Hamas’s operational capacities can Gazans move towards a post-Hamas governance model. Furthermore, Israel must retain full operational freedom to conduct counterterrorism operations in Gaza, thus preventing any resurgence of militant activities. Following this groundwork, a potentially moderate governance structure may emerge, one supported by Gulf states and the United States, but with continued Israeli oversight to ensure security from terrorist threats.

Hamas’s strategy in Gaza aims to emulate Hezbollah’s control in Lebanon, risking an enduring shadow of military dominance despite superficial governance. Israel must act decisively to dismantle Hamas’s military capacities and ensure its long-term security within the region. Preventing Hamas from exploiting international governance mechanisms is crucial for regional stability, and any future arrangements must prioritize robust military oversight to counteract potential threats. Israel’s proactive measures are paramount to inhibit the reestablishment of Hamas as a formidable military entity in Gaza.

Original Source: besacenter.org