Impact of Climate Change and Urbanization on Gaborone’s Flooding Crisis
In February 2025, heavy rainfall caused severe flooding in Botswana and South Africa, resulting in 31 fatalities and 5,000 displaced persons. Urban infrastructure inadequacies worsened the impacts. Research highlights the significant role of human-induced climate change in increasing rainfall intensity, while also acknowledging uncertainty in precise quantification. Future efforts must focus on flood resilience through improved infrastructure and comprehensive disaster preparedness.
In February 2025, southern Botswana and eastern South Africa experienced devastating floods due to unprecedented rainfall, leading to the loss of at least 31 lives—22 in KwaZulu-Natal and nine in Gaborone, including six children. Approximately 5,000 individuals have been displaced as a result of the flooding, which disrupted major transport routes and caused the temporary closure of schools in Botswana. Emergency services faced significant challenges in reaching isolated areas to provide assistance to affected residents.
To investigate the influence of human-induced climate change on the intense rainfall from February 16 to 20, 2025, a team of scientists from various countries, including Botswana, South Africa, and the United States, conducted a study. The research focused on the maximum rainfall experienced in the most severely affected regions, particularly in urbanized areas such as Gaborone, where inadequate drainage infrastructure has failed to keep up with rapid urban development.
The analysis found that heavy rainfall events, such as the one in February 2025, occur relatively infrequently in today’s climate, which has warmed by 1.3 °C. Statistically, such an event is expected to take place once every 10 to 200 years; in Gaborone, it has a 40-year return period, indicating a 2-3% annual chance. The study indicated that these extreme rainfall events would have been notably less likely in a cooler climate.
Further examination of historical climate data suggested that human-induced climate change has significantly increased the likelihood of extreme rainfall events, with an estimated 60% increased intensity at present compared to a colder climate. However, climate model predictions were inconsistent; while some indicated an increase in extreme rainfall frequency and magnitude, others showed negligible changes. This variability underscores the complexities of quantifying climate change’s impact on rainfall.
Looking ahead to a projected 2.6 °C rise in global temperatures, many climate models forecast an additional increase in heavy rainfall events, highlighting a definitive climate change signal at elevated warming levels. Despite the evidence of enhanced rainfall intensity due to climate change, precise quantification of its role remains uncertain.
The February flooding’s severe impacts were exacerbated by inadequate infrastructure, as urban areas historically faced flooding even during less extreme weather. Roads and drainage systems were overwhelmed, and health facilities experienced significant disruptions. Enhancing flood resilience through infrastructure improvements, stringent land-use regulations, and robust disaster preparedness is crucial to mitigate similar future risks.
Efforts to improve resilience should encompass expanded drainage capacities, zoning regulations to limit development in flood-prone areas, and infrastructure upgrades to accommodate present and future climate challenges. A comprehensive approach integrating multi-hazard assessments with urban planning and disaster preparedness can bolster resilience against future extreme weather events.
The severe floods in Gaborone and southern Botswana in February 2025 were primarily driven by extreme rainfall exacerbated by human-induced climate change, poor urban infrastructure, and rapid urbanization. The study’s findings emphasize an urgent need for enhanced flood resilience through infrastructure improvements, effective land-use planning, and disaster preparedness strategies. By addressing these challenges, we can better prepare for the increasing likelihood of similar extreme events in the future.
Original Source: www.worldweatherattribution.org
