Preventing the Next Ethiopia-Eritrea Conflict: An Urgent Call to Action
The article emphasizes the urgent need for intervention from Gulf states and Western allies to prevent an impending conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea, following a fragile political situation in Tigray after the cessation of hostilities agreement. Internal divisions within Tigray and geopolitical rivalries risk escalating tensions into a broader war, threatening regional stability and requiring immediate diplomatic efforts to address the crisis.
In order to prevent an imminent conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea, it is crucial for Gulf states and their Western allies to intervene swiftly. The cessation of hostilities agreement signed in late 2022 between the Ethiopian government and the Tigrayan opposition ended a devastating war with over 600,000 fatalities, yet the situation remains precarious as political divisions threaten stability in the region.
As the two-year anniversary of the Pretoria Agreement approaches, signs of deterioration become increasingly apparent. The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), historically dominant in Ethiopian politics since the 1990s, is now facing competition from rival factions driven by internal power struggles. These divisions are manifesting in the Tigrayan Defense Forces (TDF) and have ignited concerns over potential coups and violence.
The geopolitical landscape has become even more complicated by rivalries among Gulf nations over control of the Red Sea. Countries like Saudi Arabia are wary of Ethiopia’s military presence, complicating local alliances. Tensions have worsened since Eritrea and Ethiopia’s former cooperation against the TPLF dwindled after the Pretoria Agreement, leading to accusations and distrust between the governments.
The risk of conflict has been underscored by rapid military mobilization on all sides. High-ranking officials have issued urgent warnings about the danger posed by ongoing tensions, which could lead to a broader war that threatens regional stability. Such an escalation would likely intertwine with the civil unrest in neighboring Sudan and further destabilize the Horn of Africa.
Current global dynamics also contribute to anxiety, with international norms around diplomatic engagement deteriorating. The consequences of a renewed Ethiopia-Eritrea war would not remain contained; instead, they risk proliferating instability throughout northeast Africa while jeopardizing the critical shipping lanes of the Red Sea.
The need for immediate multilateral intervention is paramount. A coalition of Western and Middle Eastern nations, alongside the African Union, could exert influence to avert escalation and facilitate a dialogue among relevant parties. Failure to act could result in unchecked territorial ambitions and a descent into chaos, exacerbating crises already unfolding in neighboring regions such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Sudan.
In summary, the potential for conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea necessitates immediate action from Gulf states and their Western allies to prevent destabilization. The situation in Tigray is emblematic of deeper political fissures impacting the entire Horn of Africa, where intervention could either avert disaster or escalate existing tensions. Diplomatic efforts must prioritize dialogue to stabilize the region and prevent an outbreak of war that could extend globally, highlighting the profound interconnectedness of contemporary geopolitical conflicts.
Original Source: foreignpolicy.com
