Rising Tensions in Tigray Signal Potential Resurgence of Conflict in Ethiopia
Tensions in Tigray rise with rival factions battling for power, amidst fears of renewed conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea. Analysts highlight the urgency of dialogue to prevent the situation from escalating following previous devastating wars. Western embassies urge de-escalation as fears grow for the civilian population.
The escalating tensions in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region threaten a resurgence of conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea, as local rival factions vie for control. Analysts and residents express alarm over the potential for renewed warfare, especially considering the devastating consequences of the previous conflict from 2020 to 2022, which resulted in an estimated 600,000 fatalities. The embattled Tigray administrator has sought federal assistance amidst this rising unrest.
Despite the peace agreement established in November 2022, Tigray remains unstable, with increasing disputes among factions fuelling fears of renewed hostilities. Getachew Reda, a veteran politician appointed to lead the interim administration, faces opposition from Debretsion Gebremichael, leader of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front. Recent actions include Debretsion’s forces capturing Adigrat, exacerbating local anxiety regarding a return to wartime conditions.
The situation is further complicated by tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea, as observers worry that Eritrea could exploit the unrest to launch an offensive. Conflict expert Kjetil Tronvoll of Oslo University noted the precarious state of relations, emphasizing the uncertainty surrounding potential triggers for renewed hostilities.
The historical context of Eritrean-Ethiopian relations reveals alternating phases of conflict and temporary peace. Following a brutal border war from 1998 to 2000, Abiy Ahmed received the Nobel Peace Prize for a landmark peace agreement in 2018. However, relations have deteriorated since the end of the Tigray war, with Eritrea accusing Ethiopia of aggressive posturing.
In anticipation of further violence, Western embassies have urged de-escalation and conveyed the necessity of adhering to the 2022 peace agreement. France has advised its citizens in Tigray to prepare for emergencies and adopt heightened caution. Meanwhile, Getachew’s administration continues to appeal for assistance from the Ethiopian federal government, emphasizing the need for non-military support.
The situation in Tigray highlights the fragility of peace following a devastating conflict, with rising tensions among local factions suggesting a looming resurgence of violence. The uncertain dynamics between Ethiopia and Eritrea exacerbate fears of an imminent war, underscoring the urgent need for dialogue and stability in the region. International interventions and appeals for calm signify a recognition of the critical juncture at which Tigray finds itself.
Original Source: www.inkl.com
